Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
US farmers are experiencing significant financial strain, largely attributed to President Trump’s tariff policies and the ensuing trade tensions with China, yet their deep-seated loyalty to the former president remains largely intact. Despite a sharp decline in international crop orders, a rise in farm bankruptcies, and concerns about future prospects, many rural Americans continue to express support for Trump, viewing the economic challenges as a temporary “adjustment period” in a broader strategy.
Economic Pressures Mount for Farmers
Farmers across the American Midwest are confronting widespread difficulties, notably due to the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. Since April, retaliatory tariffs have caused a substantial reduction in Chinese demand for American crops, severely impacting agricultural sales.
This economic pressure has led to a five-year high in small business bankruptcies among farmers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg in July. Tim Maxwell, a 65-year-old grain and hog farmer in Iowa, expressed concern, noting that while yields are good, market interest is low, creating stress for many in the sector.
Specifically, China’s imposition of a 125% tariff on American goods, in response to President Trump’s 145% tariff on China, has hit the “corn belt” hard. Last year, Chinese companies purchased $12.7 billion worth of soybeans from the U.S., primarily for livestock feed, but current orders are significantly below expected levels, as warned by the American Soybean Association (ASA).
Beyond tariffs, farmers face increased input costs. The price of fertilizer has risen, partly due to trade disputes with Canada, affecting the cost of potash, a crucial component imported for agricultural use.
Persistent Loyalty Amidst Hardship
Despite these mounting financial challenges, rural Americans, a key voting bloc for President Trump, have largely maintained their support. Polling experts indicate that Trump remains broadly popular in the countryside, having won rural voters by 40 percentage points over Kamala Harris in the last election.
Many farmers, like Tim Maxwell, express patience with Trump’s policies. “Our president told us it was going to take time to get all these tariffs in place,” Maxwell stated, adding, “I am going to be patient. I believe in our president.” This sentiment reflects a widespread belief that tariffs are a strategic “bargaining chip” intended to secure better long-term trade deals for the U.S.
However, some agricultural experts, like Gil Gullickson, who owns a farm in South Dakota, caution against this approach. Gullickson, also an editor of an agriculture magazine, noted that “history proves that tariffs don’t end well.”
Administration’s Defense and Support Measures
Supporters of President Trump argue that his tariff strategy will ultimately benefit American farmers by compelling countries like China to negotiate more favorable agricultural agreements. They also highlight other forms of aid provided by the administration.
Over the summer, the administration expanded federal subsidies for farmers by $60 billion and increased funding for federal crop insurance as part of a broader tax and spend bill. Sid Miller, commissioner of the Texas Department of Agriculture, praised Trump for his “vital support,” asserting that the administration is “prioritising farmers and ranchers.”
President Trump himself acknowledged a “little bit of an adjustment period” for farmers following the tariffs in his annual speech to Congress, promising that “Our farmers are going to have a field day.”
Expert Perspectives on Long-Term Impact
Michael Langemeier, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, suggests that President Trump’s tariff strategy could eventually succeed. However, he also expressed concern that the ongoing uncertainty is causing long-term damage, as trading partners may question the consistency of U.S. policy.
Christopher Wolf, a professor of agricultural economics at Cornell University, emphasized the significant impact of China’s purchasing power. He warned that even if tariffs are eventually removed, the damage to American farmers could be lasting, as Chinese firms have begun sourcing soybeans from other countries like Brazil, potentially leading to permanent shifts in supply chains.
Former Democrat Senator Jon Tester, a third-generation farmer from Montana, further articulated the challenges, stating that tariffs have “interrupted our supply chain,” increased equipment costs, and led some international customers to abandon the U.S. market. He cautioned that young farmers, lacking savings, are particularly vulnerable to bankruptcy.
Understanding Rural America’s Enduring Support
Despite the economic adage that people “vote with their pocketbooks,” rural Americans continue to back Trump. Nicholas Jacobs, a politics professor at Colby College and author of The Rural Voter, explains that this loyalty predates Donald Trump, stemming from a feeling of alienation since the 1980s as cities benefited from globalization and technological advancements.
Professor Jacobs describes the formation of a “rural identity” rooted in shared grievances and opposition to urban liberals, viewing Republicans as their natural champions. Joan Maxwell, an Iowa dairy farmer, echoed this sentiment, stating that rural areas are often viewed as “flyover country” and that farmers feel “ignored or made fun of” by media and urban elites.
Michael Shepherd, a political science professor at the University of Michigan, attributes this sustained support partly to political polarization. He suggests that voters are increasingly entrenched, leading to “selective blame attribution,” where they are hesitant to fault their preferred politician for adverse outcomes.
While a recent ActiVote survey showed a slight decline in Trump’s approval among rural voters, analysts caution against overinterpreting such shifts due to small sample sizes. A Pew survey last month indicated that 53% of rural Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, significantly higher than the national average of 38%.
The Conditional Nature of Loyalty
Many analysts believe that rural America’s support for Trump, while strong, is not unconditional. Farmers understand risk, and while they are currently willing to give President Trump’s tariff strategy time to yield results, they expect tangible benefits.
As Iowa dairy farmer Joan Maxwell articulated, “We’re giving him the chance to follow through with the tariffs, but there had better be results. I think we need to be seeing something in 18 months or less.” This highlights that while patience endures, it is ultimately tied to the expectation of a positive economic payoff.
