Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski has warned that lower- and middle-income consumers are increasingly skipping meals, particularly breakfast, and opting to eat at home, signaling growing economic pressures on cash-strapped Americans throughout 2025. Speaking to CNBC on Tuesday, Kempczinski noted a significant decline in traffic among these customer segments, contributing to what he described as a “two-tier” U.S. economy.
Economic Pressures and Consumer Behavior
Kempczinski highlighted that traffic for lower-income consumers has fallen by double digits, indicating that many are either forgoing meals or choosing more affordable options at home. This observation aligns with recent data revealing increasing pessimism among Americans regarding the U.S. economy and their personal financial outlook for 2025, despite robust performances in U.S. equities and large-cap companies.
Analysts anticipate that the tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump will likely disproportionately affect lower-income Americans. Companies are expected to pass the increased costs from import taxes onto consumers, further straining household budgets. Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately two-thirds of U.S. GDP, could be impacted, particularly as declines among lower-income groups could hurt businesses heavily reliant on this demographic, such as McDonald’s.
McDonald’s Response to Shifting Trends
McDonald’s has observed a significant drop in sales among its less affluent customer base throughout 2025. In the first quarter, restaurant sales fell by nearly double digits among lower-income U.S. consumers compared to the previous year. This trend underscores the cumulative impact of inflation and heightened economic anxiety on these households.
While McDonald’s U.S. restaurant sales grew 2.5 percent year-over-year in the second quarter, following two consecutive quarters of domestic declines, the company noted a continued double-digit decline within its less affluent customer segment. Chief Financial Officer Ian Borden stated that the company must “work even harder to make sure we’re attractive for all consumers, including the lower income consumer.”
To address these challenges and prevent a further exodus of customers, McDonald’s and other businesses are reintroducing value-focused promotions. The fast-food chain announced on Tuesday that it will revive its “Extra Value Meals” starting September 8. These offerings include a $5 Sausage McMuffin with Egg meal, an $8 Big Mac meal, and several other limited-time specials, a strategy reminiscent of “recession specials” popularized during the 2008 financial crisis.
Outlook
The warnings from McDonald’s leadership reflect broader economic pressures on lower- and middle-income Americans, influencing their spending habits and creating a noticeable divide in the U.S. economy. As consumer confidence wanes and the anticipated effects of tariffs loom, businesses like McDonald’s are adapting their strategies to retain customers through value-oriented offerings.