Economy

Trump’s Tariff U-Turn: Will Cutting Tariffs Really Lower Coffee Prices?

Trump said lowering tariffs could cut coffee prices, a shift from his prior stance.

byEditorial Staff

November 13, 2025, 10:17 AM

A barista's hand holding a portafilter filled with finely ground coffee under a coffee machine grinder.

A close-up of a hand preparing espresso by filling a portafilter with fresh, finely ground coffee. By MDL.

Executive Summary

President Trump recently indicated that reducing tariffs could lower coffee prices, implicitly diverging from his long-held stance that foreign entities, not American consumers, bear the cost of these taxes.

This acknowledgment comes amidst significant increases in coffee prices for Americans, with coffee being approximately 15% higher in September 2025 compared to January.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the administration anticipates prices will fall for coffee, bananas, and other imported produce following “substantial announcements” in the coming days.

The Story So Far

President Donald Trump has consistently maintained that tariffs are paid by foreign countries and do not impact American consumer prices, a stance he has held for several years despite evidence and studies showing that importers often pass these costs to consumers. However, facing significant increases in coffee prices and other imported goods experienced by Americans, Trump recently indicated that reducing tariffs could lower these prices, implicitly acknowledging that tariffs contribute to higher consumer costs.

Why This Matters

President Trump’s recent acknowledgment that reducing tariffs could lower coffee prices marks a significant implicit shift from his long-held stance that foreign entities bear the cost, effectively conceding that these taxes increase prices for American consumers, as evidenced by a 15% rise in coffee costs since January. This change in rhetoric, coupled with the administration’s expectation of swift price reductions following anticipated tariff announcements on imported goods like coffee and bananas, signals a potential easing of consumer burdens, though the actual speed of these price drops remains uncertain due to broader market dynamics and company reluctance to quickly lower prices.

Who Thinks What?

Donald Trump, who historically asserted that foreign entities, rather than American consumers, bear the cost of tariffs, recently indicated that reducing tariffs could lower coffee prices.

Erica York of the Tax Foundation, along with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, views tariffs as taxes that increase prices for consumers, with Bessent stating that upcoming tariff announcements are expected to quickly bring down prices for imported goods like coffee and bananas.

President Donald Trump recently indicated that reducing tariffs could lower coffee prices, a stance that implicitly diverges from his long-held assertion that foreign entities, rather than American consumers, bear the cost of these taxes. The comments were made during a Fox News interview this week, amidst significant increases in coffee prices experienced by Americans throughout the year.

Historically, Trump has maintained that tariffs are paid entirely by foreign countries or split between foreign nations and US corporations, thereby not affecting consumer prices domestically. This position has been a consistent feature of his economic rhetoric for several years.

However, during the interview, when confronted with high coffee prices, Trump stated, “Coffee: We’re going to lower some tariffs, we’re going to have some coffee come in.” This statement suggests an acknowledgment that tariffs contribute to higher consumer costs.

Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, noted that Trump’s comment effectively serves as a self-correction of his previous claims. She posted on X that it provides “evidence that Trump et al. understand tariffs are taxes that increase prices for consumers, they just usually lie about it,” further adding that he is now acknowledging the burden tariffs create on American consumers.

Tariffs and Consumer Prices

The US government collects tariffs on imported products from American importers, which adds to their operational expenses. Numerous studies and statements from US businesses have consistently shown that importers often pass these increased costs, either partially or fully, to the final consumers.

Despite this evidence, Trump has frequently denied that consumers are negatively impacted by tariffs. For example, he stated on the campaign trail in 2024, “It’s not going to be a cost to you, it’s going to be a cost to another country.”

Consumer Price Index figures reveal that coffee prices were approximately 15% higher on average in September 2025 compared to January, the month Trump returned to office. Similarly, banana prices, another largely imported product, increased by about 8% during the same period.

Earlier this year, Trump had dismissed warnings that coffee and banana prices would rise after he declined to exempt these products from his tariff regime. Tariffs affecting coffee prices include a 50% tariff on products from Brazil, a major coffee supplier to the US.

Administration’s Expectations

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed in a Fox News interview that the administration anticipates prices will fall following “substantial announcements over the next couple of days” regarding coffee, bananas, and other produce not grown domestically. Bessent stated, “That will bring the prices down very quickly.”

The actual speed of price reductions remains to be seen. Companies that raised prices due to tariffs may be hesitant to lower them quickly, especially given various global factors that have elevated coffee crop prices this year and a five-month increase in overall US inflation.