Executive Summary
- The UK market for bearing housings is projected to reach $1.6 billion by 2035, expanding at a compound annual growth rate of +5.6% in value and +3.4% in volume.
- In 2024, the market was valued at $887 million (53,000 tons), with the UK being a net exporter, though both imports and exports experienced declines that year.
- Market expansion is primarily driven by increasing domestic demand, but growth is expected to decelerate compared to historical trends, with an increasing focus on product value.
The Trajectory So Far
- The UK’s bearing housing market is projected for steady growth, building on a decade of robust expansion driven primarily by increasing domestic demand and production. This trajectory is influenced by dynamic international trade patterns, including recent declines in both import and export volumes despite the UK’s net exporter status, and an observed trend towards higher-value products or rising costs, as indicated by the greater projected value growth compared to volume growth.
Assessing Risk and Value
- The UK bearing housings market presents a stable long-term investment opportunity, projected to reach $1.6 billion by 2035 with a +5.6% value CAGR, primarily driven by robust domestic demand. Investors should note the expected deceleration from historical growth rates and the higher value CAGR relative to volume, indicating a potential shift towards higher-value products or increasing cost pass-through. While the domestic market is strong, significant volatility and a drastic downturn in exports since 2015 highlight risks associated with international trade, requiring companies to strategically manage their global supply chain exposure.
Expert Predictions and Forecasts
- The UK market for bearing housings incorporating ball or roller bearings is projected for steady growth, expected to reach $1.6 billion by 2035, driven primarily by increasing domestic demand.
- While the market is set for continued growth, its performance is expected to decelerate compared to historical trends, with a higher forecast CAGR for value (+5.6%) than for volume (+3.4%).
- The increasing value of the market, reflected in the higher value CAGR, suggests a future focus on higher-value products or anticipates rising production costs.
The United Kingdom’s market for bearing housings incorporating ball or roller bearings is projected for steady growth, with its value expected to reach $1.6 billion by 2035, according to a new report from IndexBox. The market is forecast to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +5.6% in value and +3.4% in volume over the next decade, reaching 77,000 tons. This outlook follows a period of strong historical growth, with the market volume at 53,000 tons and valued at $887 million in 2024.
Market Dynamics and Forecast
The domestic market demonstrated robust performance in 2024, with consumption reaching 53,000 tons and production at 52,000 tons. IndexBox highlights that the UK is currently a net exporter of these bearing housings, with exports totaling 1,900 tons ($36 million) against imports of 2,800 tons ($46 million) in 2024. The anticipated market expansion is primarily driven by increasing demand within the UK.
While the market is set for continued growth, its performance is expected to decelerate compared to historical trends. The forecast indicates an increasing product value over time, reflected in the higher value CAGR compared to the volume CAGR. Significant price disparities were observed in international trade, with average import prices at $16,142 per ton and export prices at $19,240 per ton in 2024.
Consumption and Production Trends
UK consumption of bearing housings incorporating ball or roller bearings expanded to 53,000 tons in 2024, marking a 2.2% increase from 2023. Over the past eleven years (2013-2024), total consumption showed a prominent increase, averaging an annual rate of +6.8%. The market value also saw a remarkable increase, reaching $887 million in 2024, up 14% from the previous year.
Similarly, production in the UK for these bearing housings reached approximately 52,000 tons in 2024, an increase of 1.8% from 2023. Total production volume grew at an average annual rate of +5.7% between 2013 and 2024. In value terms, production skyrocketed to $921 million in 2024, demonstrating prominent growth over the review period.
International Trade Overview
Imports
In 2024, the UK’s imports of bearing housings incorporating ball or roller bearings decreased by 3% to 2,800 tons, marking a second consecutive year of decline after two years of growth. Despite this recent dip, imports generally recorded measured growth over the longer term. In value terms, imports notably shrank to $46 million in 2024, though they continue to indicate pronounced growth historically, peaking at $67 million in 2022.
China (1,200 tons), Slovakia (627 tons), and Germany (361 tons) were the primary import sources in 2024, collectively accounting for 78% of total imports by volume. In terms of value, Germany ($9.5 million), China ($7.9 million), and the United States ($7.1 million) were the largest suppliers. The average import price in 2024 was $16,142 per ton, a decrease of 24.8% from the previous year, but generally following a relatively flat trend pattern.
Exports
UK exports of bearing housings incorporating ball or roller bearings significantly shrank to 1,900 tons in 2024, down 15.2% year-on-year. This figure represents a drastic downturn in exports over the period under review, with exports failing to regain momentum after peaking at 8,200 tons in 2015. In value terms, exports fell to $36 million in 2024, also indicating a pronounced reduction over time.
The Netherlands (429 tons), Germany (418 tons), and the United States (126 tons) were the main destinations for UK exports, together comprising 52% of total exports by volume. In value terms, the United States ($8.2 million), Germany ($4.5 million), and the Netherlands ($4.3 million) were the largest markets. The average export price in 2024 grew by 16% to $19,240 per ton, indicating measured growth over the past eleven years, with prices reaching their peak in 2024.
Key Takeaways
The UK market for bearing housings incorporating ball or roller bearings is on a trajectory of sustained growth, driven by domestic demand, despite recent fluctuations in trade volumes. While the UK remains a net exporter, both imports and exports experienced declines in 2024, highlighting dynamic shifts in global supply chains and trade relationships. The increasing value of the market suggests a continued focus on higher-value products or rising production costs.
