Finance

Beyond Halving: Why PlanC Says Bitcoin’s Q4 Peak Predictions Miss the Mark

Analyst PlanC disputes Q4 Bitcoin peak predictions, citing insufficient data and new market factors.

September 6, 2025, 11:42 AM

A gold Bitcoin coin rests on top of a price chart.

As Bitcoin's value fluctuates, this gold coin sits atop a price chart, symbolizing the digital currency's potential for financial gains. By Miami Daily Life / MiamiDaily.Life.

Executive Summary

Bitcoin analyst PlanC argues that predictions of a year-end cycle-high based on past halving cycles are statistically unsound due to limited historical data, suggesting the halving cycle may be losing relevance.

PlanC attributes the diminishing relevance of halving cycles to new market dynamics, including the emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies and significant inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The cryptocurrency community remains divided on Bitcoin’s next peak, with some analysts predicting a year-end high and others projecting a longer bull run into future years, alongside ambitious price targets.

The Story So Far

The current debate surrounding Bitcoin’s future price trajectory stems from analysts challenging the statistical validity of relying on limited historical halving cycles for predictions, arguing that new market dynamics like spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds and increased institutional adoption are introducing significant new demand that may render past patterns less relevant, leading to widely divergent outlooks on when the next market peak will occur.

Why This Matters

PlanC’s challenge to the statistical basis of Bitcoin price predictions based on past halving cycles implies that investors relying solely on these historical patterns may be using flawed methodology, potentially leading to inaccurate forecasts. The diminishing relevance of the halving cycle, coupled with the emergence of new market dynamics like spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional adoption, suggests that future price movements will be driven by a broader range of factors, necessitating more sophisticated analytical approaches and introducing greater uncertainty into market outlooks.

Who Thinks What?

Bitcoin analyst PlanC argues that predictions of Bitcoin reaching its cycle-high price by year-end, based on past halving cycles, lack statistical validity due to limited historical data, and suggests the halving cycle’s relevance is diminishing amidst new market dynamics like spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Some traders and analysts anticipate Bitcoin will reach its cycle-high price by the end of this year, relying on historical halving cycles and the fact that the fourth quarter has historically been Bitcoin’s best-performing quarter.

Other market participants hold divergent outlooks, with some, like Steven McClurg, predicting a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin reaches $140,000-$150,000 this year, while others, such as Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, believe the bull market will extend into 2026, and some analysts target as high as $250,000 before year-end.

Bitcoin analyst PlanC recently challenged the statistical basis of predictions that Bitcoin will reach its cycle-high price by the end of this year, stating that traders relying on past halving cycles for such forecasts “do not understand statistics or probability.” In an X post on Friday, PlanC argued that the limited historical data from three previous halving events is insufficient for statistically significant conclusions and suggested the halving cycle itself may be losing relevance due to new market dynamics.

PlanC Challenges Statistical Basis of Q4 Peak Predictions

PlanC likened betting on a Q4 peak based on historical cycles to “flipping a coin and getting tails three times in a row, then betting all your money that the fourth flip MUST BE tails.” This analogy underscores the analyst’s view that past performance, with only three data points, does not create a statistically reliable pattern for future outcomes.

The analyst further contended that the halving cycle is no longer a primary driver for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. This perspective aligns with ongoing industry debates, particularly considering the emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies and substantial inflows into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which introduce new demand dynamics.

PlanC described the expectation of a Q4 2025 peak as having “zero fundamental reason — other than a psychological, self-fulfilling prophecy.” Historically, the fourth quarter has been Bitcoin’s best-performing quarter on average since 2013, boasting an average return of 85.42%, according to CoinGlass data.

Divergent Market Outlooks and Price Targets

The cryptocurrency trading community remains divided on the timing of Bitcoin’s next peak. While some anticipate a year-end high, others project a longer bull run, extending into the following years.

Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, stated on August 17 that there is a “greater than 50% chance Bitcoin goes to the 140 to 150 range this year before we see another bear market next year.” Conversely, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan expressed a belief in July that “2026 is an up year,” suggesting a continuation of the bull market.

Amid these varied outlooks, several analysts have put forth more ambitious targets, predicting Bitcoin could reach as high as $250,000 before the current year concludes.

Ultimately, the debate among analysts and traders highlights a tension between historical patterns and evolving market fundamentals. While some continue to rely on past halving cycles for price predictions, others, like PlanC, emphasize the need for a statistically sound approach and acknowledge the growing influence of institutional adoption and new investment vehicles on Bitcoin’s future price movements.