Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Fundstrat co-founder and BitMine chairman Tom Lee predicts that Bitcoin and Ether are poised for a “monster move” in the fourth quarter of this year, driven by anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and improving global monetary liquidity conditions. Speaking on CNBC, Lee highlighted strong seasonality and easing central bank policies as key catalysts for a significant rally in the leading cryptocurrencies over the next three months.
Market Outlook
Lee emphasized that these might be among the “stand-out trades” for the remainder of the year. He attributed this potential surge partly to the Federal Reserve’s expected first rate reduction of the year, which he believes will reinject confidence into the market.
Drawing parallels to September 1998 and 2024, when the Fed was on an “extended pause” before cutting rates, Lee stated that a rate cut would signify a “real improvement in liquidity.” The US central bank is widely expected to implement a 25-basis-point rate cut this Wednesday, though futures markets indicate a slim 4% chance of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.
Bitcoin and Ether’s Drivers
When questioned about Bitcoin and Ether’s status as risk-on assets, Lee clarified that Bitcoin is particularly sensitive to monetary policy and overall liquidity. Ether, while also sensitive to liquidity, has additional unique drivers, according to Lee.
He pointed to the convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) moving onto the blockchain and Wall Street’s increasing adoption of blockchain technology as significant factors for Ethereum. Lee compared Ethereum’s current trajectory to Wall Street in 1971, when the dollar decoupled from the gold standard, leading to substantial innovation.
Lee described Ethereum as essentially a “growth protocol,” explaining why BitMine has been aggressively accumulating Ether. The company recently disclosed holdings of $10.77 billion in cash and crypto, including 2.15 million ETH, valuing their Ether stash at $9.7 billion—nearly 1.8% of the total supply.
Lee concluded that “the convergence of both Wall Street moving onto the blockchain and AI and agentic-AI creating a token economy is creating a supercycle for Ethereum.” At the time of writing, ETH prices were trading just over $4,500, down 2.7% on the day but up almost 5% over the past week.
Key Takeaways
Tom Lee’s bullish outlook for Bitcoin and Ether hinges on impending Federal Reserve rate cuts and enhanced liquidity. He sees particular strength in Ethereum due to its role in the evolving landscape of AI and Wall Street’s blockchain integration, potentially positioning both cryptocurrencies for substantial gains in the final quarter of the year.
