Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin’s price, after a week of gains that saw it briefly top $113,000, faced a dip following the release of weaker-than-expected United States payrolls data on Friday, September 5, though it managed to hold above the psychological $110,000 mark. Despite the initial bearish reaction, analysis from XWIN Research Japan on the CryptoQuant platform suggests that this very weakness in the labor market could paradoxically set the stage for Bitcoin’s next bullish rally, driven by expectations of future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Bitcoin Holds Above Key Level Amid Job Data Paradox
The premier cryptocurrency had seen a notable resurgence, climbing from below $108,000 to as high as $113,000 over the past week. However, this progress hit a stumbling block after the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report indicated a softer labor market than anticipated.
Despite the bearish pressure triggered by the NFP release, Bitcoin demonstrated resilience, maintaining its price above the critical $110,000 level. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at approximately $110,780, reflecting minimal changes in the past 24 hours, yet still up almost 3% over the last seven days, according to CoinGecko data.
XWIN Research Highlights “Macro Story”
Interestingly, the latest market analysis from XWIN Research Japan suggests that this weak job data could, in fact, guide Bitcoin to new highs. In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, the firm explained how historical patterns indicate a paradox: while rising unemployment is often linked to weak performance in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, the current situation might play out differently.
XWIN mentioned that on-chain stablecoin data offers crucial insight into how this “macro story” could unfold within the cryptocurrency market. The crypto trading firm identified two distinct waves of activity that establish a connection between unemployment trends and crypto market positioning.
Stablecoin Data Signals Investor Readiness
The first wave, observed between late 2024 and early 2025, occurred when investors began anticipating Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as initial signs of labor market weakness emerged. During this period, capital flowed into exchanges, with stablecoin reserves surging from $30 billion to $50 billion, indicating investor preparedness for a macroeconomic shift.
The second wave, spanning from mid-2025 to the present, has seen unemployment rising once again. Mirroring the previous trend, stablecoin exchange reserves recently hit $58.5 billion. Concurrently, depositing addresses have frequently surpassed 30,000 BTC, reaching highs near 40,000 BTC.
XWIN Research emphasized that this activity is “not just accumulation—it reflects broader participation, from whales to retail, mobilizing funds in anticipation of easier policy.” This suggests a widespread expectation among investors for a shift in monetary policy.
Outlook: Weak Data as a Bullish Catalyst
According to XWIN’s analysis, the ongoing rise in unemployment in the United States is directly linked to stronger expectations for Fed rate cuts. With a significant amount of capital stored in stablecoins on exchanges, poised for deployment, the firm posits that the weak jobs data could ultimately form the foundation for a fresh rally for Bitcoin.
In summary, while recent weak U.S. job data initially pressured Bitcoin, market analysis suggests it could be a catalyst for future growth by strengthening expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. This perspective, supported by rising stablecoin reserves on exchanges, indicates a readiness among investors for a potential macroeconomic shift that could favor cryptocurrency markets.
