Finance

Beyond the Forecast: How Bitcoin’s Resilience Shattered Rogoff’s $100 Prediction

August 21, 2025, 12:15 PM

A close-up photograph of a stack of golden Bitcoin coins illuminated by a dramatic red light, with a blurry US hundred-dollar bill visible in the background.

A conceptual photograph using red lighting to symbolize a market downturn, with a stack of Bitcoin coins positioned against a US dollar bill. By Miami Daily Life / MiamiDaily.Life.

Executive Summary

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff has publicly conceded his 2018 prediction that Bitcoin would fall to $100 was flawed, citing overlooked complexities in U.S. crypto regulation and Bitcoin’s unexpected role in the global economy.

Rogoff’s reassessment points to his failure to appreciate Bitcoin’s potential in the $20 trillion global underground economy, its solidification as a legitimate store of value attracting traditional finance, and the impact of regulatory developments, including those under President Trump’s administration.

Contrary to Rogoff’s forecast, Bitcoin has rallied significantly, reaching new all-time highs above $100,000 and attracting substantial institutional interest, exemplified by Harvard’s $117 million investment in a Bitcoin ETF.

The Story So Far

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff’s initial prediction that Bitcoin would fall to $100 was predicated on the belief that robust government regulation would suppress its price by curbing illicit activities, but his assessment proved flawed as he underestimated how regulatory developments, including those under President Trump, coincided with increased Bitcoin demand, and he failed to account for Bitcoin’s significant role in the global underground economy and its growing acceptance as a legitimate store of value by traditional finance.

Why This Matters

Economist Kenneth Rogoff’s concession on his flawed Bitcoin prediction highlights the cryptocurrency’s unexpected resilience and evolving role, moving beyond his initial assumptions about regulatory suppression. This re-evaluation underscores Bitcoin’s growing legitimacy as a store of value for traditional finance and its persistent utility within the global underground economy, demonstrating the complex and often unpredictable interplay between market dynamics, regulatory environments—including policies under President Trump—and digital asset adoption.

Who Thinks What?

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff initially predicted Bitcoin would fall to $100, believing robust government regulation would suppress its price by curbing illicit activities, and he questioned the Donald Trump administration’s crypto policies which he thought might facilitate tax evasion.

Kenneth Rogoff has since conceded his earlier assessment was flawed, admitting he overlooked Bitcoin’s potential to compete with fiat currencies in the global underground economy, its solidification as a legitimate store of value attracting traditional finance investors, and the possibility of regulators holding significant cryptocurrency without consequence.

Contrary to Rogoff’s initial prediction, Bitcoin rallied significantly, surpassing $100,000, coinciding with regulatory developments under President Trump, and has seen substantial interest from traditional finance investors through Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, known for his 2018 prediction that Bitcoin would fall to $100 rather than rise to $100,000, has recently conceded his earlier assessment was flawed. In a recent X post, Rogoff outlined several factors he overlooked, primarily concerning the complexities of U.S. crypto regulation and Bitcoin’s unexpected role in the global economy. His admission comes as Bitcoin continues to trade significantly above his initial forecast.

Rogoff’s Original Stance and Reassessment

Rogoff’s initial forecast, made when Bitcoin traded around $11,000, was predicated on the belief that robust government regulation would suppress its price by curbing its use for illicit activities. He argued that without perceived utility for money laundering or tax evasion, Bitcoin’s transactional use cases were minimal, thus diminishing demand.

The former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) specifically critiqued the approach taken by the Donald Trump administration regarding Bitcoin and crypto regulation. He questioned policies that might inadvertently facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities, referencing initiatives like the GENIUS Act as examples of regulatory clarity that he believed were misdirected.

Contrary to Rogoff’s expectation, regulatory developments, including President Trump’s victory and the subsequent passage of the GENIUS Act, have coincided with increased demand for Bitcoin. The flagship cryptocurrency rallied significantly, reaching new all-time highs and surpassing the $100,000 mark he had deemed unlikely.

Further Reasons for the Missed Prediction

Rogoff further admitted he failed to fully appreciate Bitcoin’s potential to compete with fiat currencies as a preferred transaction medium within the estimated $20 trillion global underground economy. He acknowledged that this significant demand base effectively establishes a floor for Bitcoin’s price.

Beyond its use in the underground economy, Bitcoin has also solidified its position as a legitimate store of value, attracting substantial interest from traditional finance (TradFi) investors. These institutions primarily gain exposure through Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), with notable entities like Harvard recently disclosing a $117 million stake in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF.

Lastly, Rogoff stated he did not foresee a scenario where regulators, including high-ranking officials, could hold significant amounts of cryptocurrency—potentially hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars—without facing consequences for what he considers a “blatant conflict of interest.”

Current Market Context

Rogoff’s updated perspective highlights the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, demonstrating how market dynamics, regulatory environments, and unforeseen use cases can significantly alter expert predictions. Bitcoin currently trades around $113,600, reflecting its continued growth and adaptation.