Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin briefly surged above $117,000 on Friday, driven by a euphoric market mood after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a potential shift in monetary policy, while prominent analytics firm Glassnode identified a critical on-chain support zone for the cryptocurrency between $104,000 and $108,000.
On-Chain Data Pinpoints Key Support
Glassnode, a prominent analytics firm, shared new on-chain insights via an X post on August 22, indicating that Bitcoin’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) model highlights the $104,000–$108,000 range as a significant support level.
This zone is backed by substantial investor activity, with over 1.15 million BTC accumulated within this price band over the past year. This accumulation has created a dense cluster of realized prices, which could act as a strong floor for the market.
In the event of a market correction, prices are expected to retest this $104,000–$108,000 range. It currently holds the largest concentration of realized prices below the present spot market price, underscoring its importance for the short-term outlook.
Powell’s Comments Ignite Derivatives Market
In a related development, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported a sharp surge in Bitcoin derivatives activity following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming.
Powell suggested that the Fed might be preparing to adjust its monetary policy stance, citing the economy’s baseline outlook and evolving risk dynamics. He noted that the policy rate is closer to neutral and the stability of the labor market allows for careful consideration of policy changes.
Within 15 minutes of Powell’s remarks, nearly $300 million flowed into Bitcoin futures products, according to Darkfost. This influx pushed Binance’s BTC Open Interest to approximately $13.3 billion.
The spike reflects investors positioning themselves for potential interest rate cuts at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September. This anticipation follows Powell’s hint of a possible easing of the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $115,850, reflecting a price gain of 2.25% over the past 24 hours.
The recent market movements underscore Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic signals, particularly from the Federal Reserve. Simultaneously, on-chain data provides key technical levels for investors to monitor in the evolving market landscape.
