Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin market participants are intently monitoring key price levels around $116,000, $117,200, and $114,000 as a new week commences, anticipating increased volatility driven by upcoming United States macroeconomic data. Traders are bracing for a “busy week” that includes the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and speeches from various Fed officials, following a quiet weekend for the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Price Action and Key Levels
As of Sunday’s weekly close, Bitcoin (BTC) hovered below $116,000, positioned between support at $114,000 and resistance at $117,200. These levels remained crucial throughout the previous week as the price responded to US macroeconomic volatility triggers, keeping traders guessing ahead of potential all-time highs.
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted on X that the retest of $114,000 as support continued to be successful, but resistance at approximately $117,200 persisted. He described this as a “range-bound construction” and indicated that the strength of the $117,200 resistance would soon be tested.
Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades offered an expanded view, identifying $112,000 and $118,000 as key short-term levels for market cues. He acknowledged the fourth consecutive weekend of low volatility and the absence of a “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market, suggesting a potential breakout next week.
Crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows concurred with the lack of immediate movement, observing that BTC/USD had been consolidating around the $116,000 level. Pillows suggested that a sustained push above the $117,000 region could trigger a rally, otherwise a “dump followed by a rally in Q4” might be the plan.
Upcoming Macro Catalysts
The macroeconomic outlook is poised to introduce greater volatility for both crypto and traditional risk assets as September draws to a close. The US Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is scheduled for release on September 26.
Several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are slated to speak throughout the week. These appearances come just days after the Fed voted to enact its first interest-rate cut of 2025, setting the stage for market participants to seek further hints regarding future monetary policy.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter highlighted the “busy week ahead” on X, emphasizing that markets would be closely scrutinizing the upcoming macro data for clues on the Fed’s next interest-rate decision, due on October 29. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently shows overwhelming market confidence in another 0.25% rate cut.
