Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin’s spot market is showing significant signs of an early recovery, with increased trading activity and on-chain data pointing towards a potential breakout. Analysts suggest that a decisive close above the $113,650 resistance level is crucial to confirm a bullish trend, which could pave the way for Bitcoin to reach as high as $119,500.
Market Indicators Point to Renewed Interest
Several on-chain and exchange flow metrics are signaling a shift in market dynamics for Bitcoin. These indicators collectively suggest a stronger buyer presence and a potential reaccumulation phase, contrasting with weaker trends seen in other major cryptocurrencies.
On-Chain Data Signals Strong Buyer Support
Data from Glassnode indicates a sharp divergence between Bitcoin’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) and Ether’s, with BTC showing denser spot activity. The CBD, an on-chain metric tracking accumulation and distribution price levels, suggests that Bitcoin transactions are tightly clustered across recent price points. This density is interpreted as a strong buyer conviction, historically providing more durable support compared to futures-driven momentum.
Exchange Flows Indicate Liquidity Regime Shift
Further supporting the recovery thesis, CryptoQuant’s analysis highlights notable exchange flow patterns. Coinbase experienced a consistent netflow spike between August 25 and 31, immediately following its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) hitting its lowest point since early 2023. Such sharp reversals from multi-year troughs often signal a significant shift in liquidity dynamics, potentially indicating settlement restructuring or preparation for heightened exchange activity.
Concurrently, Binance’s 30-day SMA netflow reached its highest levels since July 2024 on both July 25 and August 25. Historically, these levels have coincided with reaccumulation phases preceding new local highs. The simultaneous trough on Coinbase and peak on Binance suggest a meaningful redistribution of reserves, potentially setting the stage for upward price movement.
Long-Term Holder Activity Remains Measured
While an acceleration in long-term holder (LTH) spending and potential profit-taking has been observed recently, with the 14-day SMA trending higher, this activity remains within typical cycle norms. It is also well below the peaks seen in October–November 2024, suggesting a measured distribution rather than aggressive selling pressure from these key holders.
Recent Price Action and Technical Breakouts
Bitcoin demonstrated resilience this week, rebounding sharply after dipping to $107,300 on Monday, a level closely aligned with its short-term realized price, suggesting strong support. The cryptocurrency broke above Monday’s $109,900 high during Tuesday’s New York trading session, following a two-week corrective phase.
Lower time frames, including the 15-minute and 1-hour charts, are now flashing a bullish break of structure. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also reclaimed levels above 50, further reinforcing the growing bullish conviction among traders.
Key Levels for Confirmation and Potential Targets
For the recovery to continue and solidify, Bitcoin must decisively clear immediate resistance situated between $112,500 and $113,650. A confirmed close above $113,650 would validate a bullish break of structure on the daily chart and invalidate the descending trendline that has capped price action for the past two weeks.
Such a breakout could open the path towards liquidity targets at $116,300, $117,500, and potentially $119,500. However, traders should exercise caution given September’s historically bearish seasonality. A failure to break out or sustained weakness below $113,650 would leave BTC vulnerable to downside targets extending towards the order block between $105,000 and $100,000.
