Finance

Bitcoin ETFs Face Outflows, But Is Bitcoin Now Oversold? Analyst Weighs In

August 22, 2025, 10:14 AM

A golden Bitcoin coin and a stack of gold coins are placed on a table, with a blurry money counting machine and a hundred-dollar bill in the background.

A conceptual photograph that contrasts a Bitcoin coin with US hundred-dollar bills and a money counter, symbolizing the difference between digital currency and traditional fiat money. By Miami Daily Life / MiamiDaily.Life.

Executive Summary

Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a five-day losing streak with approximately $1.17 billion in outflows, marking the longest continuous outflow for US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs in over four months.

Crypto analyst Anthony Pompliano stated that Bitcoin is “pretty oversold” and likely undervalued despite the recent outflows.

Pompliano anticipates potential Bitcoin price appreciation due to oversold signals, the approach of September and October post-halving, and external factors like a potential US Federal Reserve rate cut.

The Story So Far

The recent outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, the longest streak in months, are occurring amidst a backdrop where analysts suggest Bitcoin is oversold, influenced by historical market patterns that typically see the third quarter as its weakest and the fourth quarter as its strongest, particularly in the year following the April 2024 halving. This sentiment is also shaped by speculative anticipation of a US Federal Reserve rate cut and increased institutional interest in acquiring Bitcoin, both expected to contribute to future demand.

Why This Matters

The sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking the longest streak in months, signal a notable shift in short-term investor sentiment and reflect a period of market weakness for the cryptocurrency. However, this downturn is simultaneously viewed by some analysts as Bitcoin becoming “oversold,” potentially setting the stage for a rebound driven by historical seasonal patterns, post-halving dynamics, and anticipated macroeconomic catalysts like a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, which could reignite institutional and retail demand.

Who Thinks What?

US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced their longest continuous outflow streak in over four months, with approximately $1.17 billion in outflows, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment.

Crypto analyst Anthony Pompliano believes Bitcoin is “pretty oversold” and undervalued, suggesting it is poised for price appreciation due to historical seasonal trends, post-halving dynamics, and potential catalysts like Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased institutional demand.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced a five-day losing streak, recording approximately $1.17 billion in outflows, while crypto analyst Anthony Pompliano suggests that Bitcoin’s spot price may now be oversold. This period marks the longest continuous outflow for US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs in over four months, prompting discussions about the asset’s current valuation and future trajectory.

ETF Outflows Mark Longest Streak in Months

US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have endured their most extended run of outflows since a seven-day period in April, when Bitcoin was trading near $79,625. The recent $1.17 billion in outflows over the past five trading days represents a significant shift in investor sentiment, according to data from Farside and CoinMarketCap.

Pompliano Sees Bitcoin as “Oversold”

Despite the recent outflows, Anthony Pompliano stated on CNBC on Thursday that Bitcoin is likely undervalued. At the time of his remarks, Bitcoin was trading around $112,870, leading him to conclude that the asset is “pretty oversold.”

Pompliano highlighted that Bitcoin’s current oversold signals, combined with the approach of September and October in the year following the April 2024 halving, could indicate a readiness for price appreciation. He suggested that increased investor activity in September, as people return from August breaks, could contribute to this momentum.

Market Performance and Historical Trends

Just over a week prior to these developments, Bitcoin had reached new all-time highs of $124,128 on August 14. Historically, the third quarter has been Bitcoin’s weakest, averaging a 6.02% return since 2013, while the fourth quarter has been its strongest, with an average gain of 85.42%, according to CoinGlass.

Pompliano noted that investor belief in these historical patterns can influence market behavior, potentially encouraging buying as the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4 approach. This anticipatory action, he argues, can contribute to a self-fulfilling prophecy of price increases.

Future Outlook and Price Predictions

While Pompliano anticipates a pickup in Bitcoin’s price toward the end of the year, he expressed skepticism about it reaching $1 million in the current market cycle, though he believes it may be possible in the future. He also pointed to external factors that could boost demand for Bitcoin.

These factors include speculation surrounding the highly anticipated US Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17. Additionally, treasury firms raising more funds specifically to acquire Bitcoin could further increase demand for the cryptocurrency, according to Pompliano.

In summary, spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a notable period of outflows, marking the longest such streak in months. However, Anthony Pompliano maintains an optimistic outlook, viewing Bitcoin as oversold and poised for potential gains driven by seasonal trends, post-halving dynamics, and other market catalysts, even as he tempers expectations for a $1 million price target in the immediate cycle.