Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
A record-setting downward revision of payrolls by 911,000 jobs by the US Labor Department has significantly intensified expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. This move, according to some analysts, could provide a substantial boost to Bitcoin’s price, potentially driving a rally to as high as $185,000 in the fourth quarter of the year.
Dismal Jobs Data Fuels Rate Cut Hopes
The US Labor Department announced the largest payroll revision in history, wiping 911,000 jobs from previously reported data for the 12 months ending March 2025. This revision indicates an average of 76,000 jobs overstated per month, surpassing the scale of the 2009 revision during the global financial crisis.
Losses were primarily concentrated in consumer-driven categories, with total private hiring overstated by 880,000 jobs. This level of weakness has not been observed outside of the Great Depression and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, signaling a deep and concerning weakness in the labor market.
This record revision follows previous cuts, including 258,000 jobs from May and June reports last month, with an additional 27,000 tacked on yesterday. Such consecutive revisions mark the largest two-month net revision in modern history outside of 2020, further solidifying the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its upcoming meeting.
Gold’s Precedent and Bitcoin’s Potential
The traditional store of value, gold, has already seen a significant rally, surging 40% this year, with gold miners nearly doubling returns. This performance reflects long-standing investor bets that a weakening labor market would compel the Fed to act, despite core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining above 3% and strong GDP growth.
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin could mirror gold’s rally. The expectation of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve marks a historic moment, as it would be the first cut with inflation still elevated, stocks at record highs, and GDP strong. This combination indicates the central bank is prioritizing labor weakness over inflation, creating a “dovish but cautious” monetary policy environment.
Bitcoin’s lean positioning and historical sensitivity to liquidity cycles could transform this rare policy mix into a powerful upside catalyst. This scenario, according to some market observers, could revive momentum toward new highs in Q4.
Price Targets Emerge
Analytics platform Tephra Digital has forecast that if Bitcoin’s lagged M2 and gold correlations hold, the remainder of the year could be highly dynamic for the cryptocurrency. Their charts point to potential price targets ranging between $167,000 and $185,000.
The significant downward revision in US jobs data has heightened expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. This anticipated policy shift, driven by concerns over labor market weakness, is seen by some as a potential catalyst to propel Bitcoin’s price higher, drawing parallels to gold’s recent rally in a similar economic climate.
