A man with a humorous expression sits at a desk with multiple computer monitors.

Despite the chaotic display of multiple monitors, the man's focused expression suggests he's completely in his element. By MDL.

Finance

Bitcoin Fear Index Hits April Lows: Is a Bull Run Brewing at $109K?

Bitcoin‘s fear index drops to April lows despite higher prices, signaling a potential market turning point.

byAndres Castro

September 26, 2025, 9:59 AM

Executive Summary

Bitcoin market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, has dropped to 28/100, its lowest level since April 11, despite Bitcoin trading approximately $25,000 higher than during the previous period of extreme fear.

Analysts are speculating that the current high level of fear at a significantly higher price point could signal an imminent market “turning point” or reversal, historically preceding market bottoms.

Research indicates a divergence between retail and large-volume traders, with retail investors showing impatience and bearishness, while large-volume traders are actively increasing their Bitcoin exposure.

The Story So Far

The current plunge in Bitcoin market sentiment, reflected by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reaching extreme “fear” levels despite a significantly higher price than during previous lows, suggests a potential market turning point, as historical trends often show extreme fear preceding market bottoms, further complicated by a divergence where retail investors anticipate lower prices while large-volume traders increase their exposure.

Why This Matters

The sharp decline in Bitcoin market sentiment, reaching “fear” levels despite a significantly higher price than previous lows, suggests a potential turning point for the market. This divergence, where retail investors are bearish while large-volume traders increase their exposure, could signal an impending rebound or a strategic shift in investment patterns between institutional and individual players.

Who Thinks What?

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index indicates that market sentiment has plummeted to “fear” levels, reaching its lowest point since April despite Bitcoin trading at significantly higher prices than during the last period of extreme fear.

Crypto YouTube channel host Michael Pizzino suggests that the current disparity between high fear and higher prices could signal an imminent market turning point for Bitcoin and crypto.

Research platform Santiment observes that retail investors are showing “impatience and bearishness,” historically a precursor to price increases, while large-volume traders are actively increasing their exposure to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin market sentiment has plummeted to levels not seen since mid-April, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling below 30/100 following a recent price dip and subsequent liquidations. This significant drop into “fear” territory comes despite Bitcoin trading at prices significantly higher than when the index last reached these lows, prompting analysts to question if a market “turning point” is imminent.

Market Sentiment Plunges

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a key gauge of market sentiment, registered just 28/100 on Friday, marking its lowest point since April 11. This drastic shift saw the index decline by 16 points in a single day as Bitcoin approached new monthly lows under $109,000.

The current sentiment echoes the April lows when Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $83,000. This presents a notable divergence, as the present BTC price is approximately $25,000 higher than during the last period of extreme fear, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

A Potential Turning Point?

The stark difference between the current higher price and the suppressed sentiment has led some to speculate about an impending market reversal. Crypto YouTube channel host Michael Pizzino highlighted this disparity on X, noting, “MORE fear and a HIGHER price.”

Pizzino further suggested that this could be “the turning point Bitcoin and Crypto has been waiting for,” though he cautioned that the analysis, while promising, remains unconfirmed. This perspective points to the historical tendency for extreme fear to precede market bottoms.

Retail vs. Large-Volume Traders

Adding another layer to the market dynamics, research platform Santiment observed signals of an impending BTC price rebound even before the latest dip. According to Santiment, social media users were already anticipating lower prices, a sentiment that historically increases the likelihood of a price increase.

Santiment described a “high amount of impatience and bearishness emerging from the retail crowd” on X. Conversely, their data also indicated that large-volume traders have been actively increasing their exposure to Bitcoin in recent days, suggesting a potential divergence in strategy between retail and institutional investors.