Finance

Bitcoin Recovers, But Can ETF Inflows Outpace Gold’s Rally Amid Trump’s Trade Tensions?

Bitcoin rebounded near $115,000 after tariffs, but ETF inflows are key for sustained positive sentiment.

October 27, 2025, 3:09 PM

A physical bitcoin coin sits on a wooden table in front of a red graph illustrating the concept of a bitcoin bear market.

The physical bitcoin, a tangible representation of the digital currency, stands precariously on the wooden table, a stark contrast to the ominous red graph illustrating the bear market. By MDL.

Executive Summary

Bitcoin largely recovered to near $115,000 following market volatility triggered by President Donald Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on China.

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick highlights that substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are crucial to confirm sustained positive market sentiment, with the Bitcoin-gold ratio also a key indicator.

Despite Bitcoin’s recent gains and recovery, gold has significantly outperformed the cryptocurrency year-to-date, with returns of roughly 54% compared to Bitcoin’s 23%.

The Story So Far

The Bitcoin market recently experienced a flash crash and subsequent volatility due to President Donald Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on China, impacting investor sentiment across digital assets. While a reported meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has since improved market confidence, the sustained positive outlook for Bitcoin is contingent on substantial inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and an increasing Bitcoin-gold ratio, which analysts are monitoring as key indicators of easing trade-related fears.

Why This Matters

President Donald Trump’s tariff threats underscore the significant impact geopolitical events can have on the volatile crypto market, as evidenced by a $19 billion flash crash. Despite Bitcoin’s recovery, its sustained positive momentum hinges on robust inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which are currently lagging gold. This situation highlights the ongoing competition between Bitcoin and gold as safe-haven assets, with gold’s strong year-to-date performance indicating its continued preference among investors amidst economic and political uncertainties.

Who Thinks What?

President Donald Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on China triggered significant volatility and a flash crash in the cryptocurrency market.

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick suggests that substantial inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are crucial to confirm sustained positive market sentiment and that the Bitcoin-gold ratio surpassing 30 would signal easing market fears related to trade talks.

Prediction markets, like Myriad, currently show a 65% probability of gold outperforming Bitcoin in 2025, reflecting gold’s significant year-to-date outperformance compared to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has largely recovered to trade near $115,000, following market volatility triggered by President Donald Trump’s recent threat of 100% tariffs on China. Despite this rebound, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick suggests that substantial inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are crucial to confirm a sustained positive market sentiment, particularly as investors weigh the outcomes of recent U.S.-China trade discussions.

Market Reaction to Tariff Threats

The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant flash crash on October 10, wiping out an unprecedented $19 billion in open interest. This sharp downturn was widely attributed to President Trump’s tariff threats, which sent spot prices plummeting across the digital asset landscape.

ETF Flows and Investor Sentiment

In the aftermath, Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered highlighted a notable trend: approximately $2 billion exited gold ETFs during the latter half of last week. Kendrick noted that Bitcoin ETF inflows have been lagging gold and proposed that if Bitcoin ETFs could attract about half of that amount this week, it would signal a more robust positive backdrop for the digital asset.

Bitcoin-Gold Ratio and Lingering Fears

Following a reported meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, investor sentiment has shown signs of improvement, leading to an enhanced Bitcoin-gold ratio. However, Kendrick indicated that some apprehension remains, stating he would watch for the ratio to surpass 30 as a definitive sign of easing market fears related to trade talks.

Year-to-Date Performance Comparison

Despite Bitcoin’s recent gains, gold has significantly outperformed the cryptocurrency year-to-date. Gold has seen returns of roughly 54% since January, compared to Bitcoin’s 23% climb. Prediction markets, such as Myriad, still show a 65% probability of gold outperforming Bitcoin in 2025, although this figure has slightly decreased in recent days.

Outlook

While Bitcoin demonstrates resilience in its recovery, the market continues to monitor ETF flows and the Bitcoin-gold ratio as indicators of sustained investor confidence. Gold’s substantial year-to-date performance underscores a dynamic interplay between traditional safe havens and emerging digital assets in the current economic climate.