Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a new record high on Sunday, with analysts now forecasting further gains towards $150,000. This rally is attributed to several factors, including significant inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a depreciating US dollar, and the ongoing US government shutdown.
Analyst Projections
Crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto stated on Sunday that Bitcoin’s “next leg to $150k+ has begun” following its impulsive new all-time high. While suggesting a potential “blast through” current levels, the analyst did not rule out a pullback to the $108,000 to $118,000 range.
Similarly, long-term crypto trader Crypto Chase echoed this sentiment, predicting that “a new leg up seems likely” and that strong pullbacks would be minor. Hyperliquid whale trader James Wynn also noted the start of “price discovery mode,” attributing the delay to “price suppression” and attention on gold and stocks. TradingView data confirmed Bitcoin’s highest weekly close in history at $123,543.
Key Drivers of the Rally
The recent 11% surge in Bitcoin’s price over the past week is linked to several macroeconomic and market-specific factors. Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE exchange, suggested the US government shutdown, which began on October 1, is prompting investors to view Bitcoin as a safe haven. This provides an alternative for diversifying away from the US dollar and Treasuries.
Mei further explained that the US dollar’s depreciation, with the US Dollar Index declining over 12% this year, encourages investors to allocate capital to other currencies and Bitcoin. This record high for Bitcoin coincides with the US dollar’s weakest performance in decades.
ETF Inflows and Seasonality
Venture capital investor Will Clemente highlighted that the significant Bitcoin price movement was primarily driven by spot exchange-traded funds, not digital asset treasuries or derivatives. Nate Geraci, President of Nova Dius, observed that US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced “ridiculous numbers” last week, recording $3.2 billion in inflows, marking their second-best week since launch.
These influences, combined with historically bullish seasonality, could fuel a continued rally. Bitcoin has historically gained in eight out of 12 past fourth quarters and 10 of the past 12 Octobers. Crypto YouTuber Michaël van de Poppe emphasized the strength of a $15,000 surge in a single week, while Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards previously predicted a rapid move to $150,000 upon breaking $120,000.
Outlook
The confluence of strong ETF interest, a weakening US dollar, and favorable historical patterns suggests a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the near term. Analysts anticipate further price discovery beyond recent highs, with potential targets around $150,000.
