Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing six-week highs, pushing towards $118,000 following Wednesday’s Wall Street open, as markets largely dismiss the ongoing US government shutdown. The cryptocurrency’s upward momentum is primarily driven by weaker-than-expected US jobs data, which analysts believe increases the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, making any price dips potential “buy opportunities.”
Market Dynamics and Price Action
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $117,713, coming within $150 of surpassing its September maximum. Achieving this would mark its highest level since August 17.
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted on X that Bitcoin is “trying to breakout from its Monthly Range already on the first day of the new month of October,” signaling a strong start to the month.
Economic Tailwinds
The latest US private-sector employment numbers came in significantly below expectations, turning negative against projections of a 45,000 job gain for September. This weakness in the labor market is widely considered a positive catalyst for crypto assets.
Such economic indicators heighten the odds of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which typically leads to increased capital inflows into risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently indicates that markets are overwhelmingly betting on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 0.25% at its upcoming October meeting.
Analyst Perspectives
Trader Jelle described BTC’s price action as “pushing through the resistance like it isn’t even there.” He further suggested that clearing the September highs would leave “very little leg to stand on” for bears, indicating potential for further upside.
Fellow trading account Daan Crypto Trades identified $112,000 as “key short-term support.” He emphasized that a proper breakout and sustained daily closes above the current channel would signal a readiness for new highs, placing the onus on bulls to maintain the momentum.
Government Shutdown Impact
Despite the new US government shutdown, the buoyant mood across risk assets remained largely unaffected. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index opened modestly higher, while gold consolidated after hitting new all-time highs earlier in the day.
Trading company QCP Capital stated that the shutdown should be a “market non-event beyond data delays and headline noise.” The firm argued that essential services continue, back-pay limits income effects, and past episodes have not derailed risk assets.
QCP Capital highlighted that during the 2018 shutdown, the S&P 500 ended 10% higher. Given Bitcoin’s elevated correlation to equities, the company concluded that “shutdown-related dips” should be viewed as “buy opportunities rather than chasing gap-ups.”
Outlook
Bitcoin’s current push towards six-week highs reflects a market buoyed by expectations of potential interest rate cuts stemming from weak US jobs data. Analysts and trading firms largely view the US government shutdown as a negligible factor, suggesting that the broader economic context and technical breakout attempts are the primary drivers for continued upward momentum.
