Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of approximately $125,700 on Sunday morning, while the amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges plummeted to a six-year low. Over 114,000 BTC, valued at more than $14 billion, departed these platforms in the past fortnight, signaling a strong shift towards long-term holding among investors.
Bitcoin Reaches New All-Time High
The leading cryptocurrency touched a new peak of just over $125,700 on Coinbase, according to Tradingview. This surpasses its previous all-time high of $124,500 recorded on August 14.
Despite a 13.5% pullback by September 1, Bitcoin has demonstrated a robust recovery over the past week. Commenting on the milestone, Nova Dius President Nate Geraci observed, “Bitcoin hits new all-time high … And most people still don’t even know what Bitcoin is.”
Analyst Rekt Capital had previously stated on Saturday, “If Bitcoin is able to convincingly break $126,500, then chances are price will go a lot higher and quickly,” anticipating the recent price action.
Exchange Balances Hit Multi-Year Lows
The total Bitcoin balance on centralized exchanges fell to 2.83 million BTC on Saturday, marking a six-year low, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. The last time fewer coins were held on exchanges was in early June 2019, when Bitcoin was trading around $8,000.
Blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reported an even lower total exchange reserve figure of 2.45 million BTC, placing it at a seven-year low. Both platforms indicate a sharp decline in BTC exchange balances over the past two weeks.
This significant outflow of over 114,000 BTC, worth more than $14 billion, suggests that holders are moving their assets into self-custody, institutional funds, or digital asset treasuries. Such movements typically indicate an intent to hold coins for the long term rather than prepare them for immediate sale.
Reports of Potential Bitcoin Shortages
The dwindling supply on exchanges has led to speculation about potential shortages. Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, remarked on Saturday, “Hearing exchanges are out of Bitcoin,” adding, “Monday 9:30 am might be the first official shortage.”
Investor and trader Mike Alfred further amplified these concerns on Sunday morning, relaying information from a prominent over-the-counter (OTC) desk. According to Alfred, the desk reported that at the current pace, they anticipate being “completely out of Bitcoin to sell within two hours of futures opening tomorrow, unless the price goes to $126,000 to $129,000.”
Key Takeaways
The confluence of Bitcoin achieving a new all-time high and a dramatic reduction in its available supply on centralized exchanges highlights a strong bullish sentiment. The substantial movement of BTC into long-term holding solutions and reports of potential supply shortages underscore a market increasingly driven by sustained demand and reduced selling pressure.
