Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin’s price failed to find significant bullish momentum on Friday, threatening new September lows as sellers pushed the cryptocurrency below the critical $109,000 support level. This occurred despite the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data, which, though aligning with expectations, offered no relief to the market, with bid liquidity clustered around $108,200.
Price Action and Support Levels
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated that BTC/USD was risking a breakdown below $109,000 during the final Wall Street open of the week. Exchange order-book liquidity showed significant bid clusters at $108,200 on Binance, while short liquidations were due at $110,000 and above, according to data from CoinGlass.
Market Deleveraging
On-chain analytics platform Glassnode noted a “broad deleveraging event” as Bitcoin futures experienced another wave of long liquidations when the price dipped below $111,000. This flush of leverage often resets market positioning and can ease the risk of further cascading liquidations, though it did not immediately spur a rebound in this instance.
Trader Sentiment and Price Targets
Despite the deleveraging, traders remained risk-averse, with price targets toward $100,000 gaining popularity. Crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows observed that if the current support level holds, Bitcoin could rally towards $112,000. However, in case of a breakdown, Pillows suggested BTC would retest the $101,000 support region before a potential reversal.
Macroeconomic Context
Macroeconomic events, specifically the release of the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, had little perceptible impact on Bitcoin’s trajectory. The PCE index arrived in line with expectations at 2.7%, marking its highest level since February 2025.
Reacting to the PCE data, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter concluded that despite PCE inflation being at seven-month highs, the Fed would likely continue with interest-rate cuts. These cuts are keenly anticipated by traders in both crypto and broader risk-asset markets.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s inability to rebound after the PCE inflation data underscores a persistent bearish sentiment, with key support levels under pressure and market participants eyeing lower price targets. The recent deleveraging event, while typically a market reset, has yet to translate into renewed bullish conviction, leaving the cryptocurrency vulnerable to further declines.
