Finance

Bitcoin Whale’s $116M Move: Did a 12-Year Dormant Wallet Predict the Fed’s Rate Cut?

12-year-old Bitcoin whale moves $116M BTC before Fed meeting, sparking market caution and de-risking.

September 17, 2025, 9:54 AM

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Executive Summary

A 12-year dormant Bitcoin whale transferred 1,000 BTC, valued at $116 million, just hours before a key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The market is highly anticipating the FOMC meeting, with 96% expecting a 25 basis point interest rate cut, potentially the first of the year.

Despite the optimistic outlook for a rate cut, cryptocurrency traders are showing cautious sentiment through de-risking, short positions, and significant Bitcoin outflows from exchanges.

The Story So Far

The current cautious market sentiment and significant Bitcoin movements are primarily driven by the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce its first interest rate cut of the year, leading many cryptocurrency traders to de-risk and take short positions in anticipation of potential market volatility.

Why This Matters

The significant transfer of $116 million by a long-dormant Bitcoin whale, just hours before a critical Federal Reserve interest rate decision, underscores the immense profit potential for early cryptocurrency investors and the strategic sensitivity of large holders to major macroeconomic events. This move, coupled with widespread market de-risking and short-positioning among traders, highlights the prevailing uncertainty and the profound influence that traditional economic policy, particularly the Fed’s actions, now exert on the volatile cryptocurrency market.

Who Thinks What?

A long-dormant Bitcoin whale transferred 1,000 BTC, realizing substantial profits after holding the cryptocurrency for 12 years.

Most market participants anticipate a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve, with 96% of participants expecting this outcome.

Many cryptocurrency traders are positioning for a short-term decline in the crypto market, with over 57% of Bitcoin holders across exchanges betting short, and futures traders reducing exposure due to potential volatility.

A Bitcoin whale, dormant for 12 years, transferred 1,000 BTC, valued at approximately $116 million at current prices, to new wallets on Wednesday. This significant movement occurred just hours before a highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to announce its key interest rate decision, potentially delivering the first rate cut of the year.

The whale initially acquired the 1,000 Bitcoin for about $847 per coin, totaling around $847,000 at the time. After holding the cryptocurrency for over a decade, the transfer represents a substantial realization of gains, according to data from blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain.

Market Anticipation Ahead of Fed Meeting

The timing of the transfer coincides with widespread market speculation surrounding the Fed’s decision. This FOMC meeting is considered one of the most critical events of the year, with 96% of participants anticipating a 25 basis point interest rate cut, an increase from 85% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Despite the optimistic outlook for an interest rate cut, many cryptocurrency traders are positioning themselves for a short-term decline in the crypto market. Data from CoinAnk indicates that over 57% of Bitcoin holders across all exchanges are currently short, betting on a price decrease, while only 42% remain long.

De-risking and Outflows

Further signaling de-risking ahead of the FOMC meeting, Bitcoin futures open interest experienced a drop of over $2 billion in five days, Cointelegraph reported. This reduction suggests that futures traders are reducing their exposure to potential market volatility.

Onchain insights platform CryptoQuant noted that Binance saw nine consecutive days of “constructive outflows” for Bitcoin leading up to the FOMC meeting. This trend, according to CryptoQuant, appears to be a “major driver behind Bitcoin’s recent bounce from $108k to +$115k.”

Key Takeaways

The awakening of a long-dormant Bitcoin whale and its substantial transfer of $116 million in BTC highlights the significant profits realized by early adopters. This event, coupled with a cautious market sentiment characterized by de-risking and short positions, underscores the anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision and its potential impact on global financial markets, including cryptocurrency.