Finance

Bitcoin’s $100,000 Test: Why Traders Are Betting Against a Quick Rally

Bitcoin traders now predict a drop to $100K before $120K, with bearish technicals.

October 16, 2025, 6:04 PM

A physical bitcoin sits on a wooden table in front of a red graph depicting a bear market.

The physical bitcoin sits on the wooden table as a red graph behind it indicates a bear market, illustrating the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market. By MDL.

Executive Summary

Prediction markets now show a 57% chance Bitcoin will fall to $100,000 before reaching $120,000, reversing earlier bullish sentiment.

Technical indicators, including a “death cross” on the four-hour chart and bearish Ichimoku Cloud signals, point to a strong and accelerating short-term bearish trend for Bitcoin.

Prediction markets heavily dismiss an immediate recovery, with a 95% probability that Bitcoin will not reach $115,000 by Friday, reinforcing the likelihood of testing the $100,000 support level.

The Story So Far

The dramatic shift in Bitcoin sentiment and predictions of a price drop are largely driven by a confluence of bearish technical indicators, including a “death cross” formation on the four-hour chart, bearish Ichimoku Cloud signals, and accelerating downward momentum across various timeframes. This technical outlook is further reinforced by prediction markets, which have rapidly shifted to overwhelmingly favor a decline to $100,000 before any significant recovery.

Why This Matters

The significant shift in Bitcoin sentiment, with prediction markets now favoring a drop to $100,000 before reaching $120,000, signals a challenging period for the cryptocurrency. This bearish outlook is strongly supported by multiple technical indicators, including a “death cross” and intensifying downward momentum on shorter timeframes, suggesting that Bitcoin is likely to test the psychologically significant $100,000 support level, with potential for further algorithmic selling if it fails to hold.

Who Thinks What?

Prediction markets indicate a dramatic shift in sentiment, now showing a 57% chance that Bitcoin will fall to $100,000 before reaching $120,000, and a 95% probability it will not recover to $115,000 by Friday.

Technical indicators, including a low Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37, a “fear” zone reading on the Fear and Greed Index at 30, and a “death cross” on the four-hour chart, reveal a predominantly bearish short-term outlook for Bitcoin.

Sentiment among Bitcoin traders has dramatically shifted, with a prediction market now indicating a 57% chance that the cryptocurrency will fall to $100,000 before reaching $120,000. This marks a sharp reversal from just hours earlier, when the same market showed a 57% probability of BTC moving in the bullish direction. The cryptocurrency is currently trading just under $108,000, having recently dropped over 10% in the past seven days from its all-time high above $125,000.

Technical Indicators Point to Bearish Short-Term Outlook

An analysis of technical indicators reveals a predominantly bearish short-term picture for Bitcoin. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures market momentum, has dipped to 37 points. While this suggests oversold conditions, it is not yet at “capitulation-level” lows. The Fear and Greed Index, a sentiment indicator, is also firmly in the “fear” zone at 30 points, corroborating the bearish sentiment among traders.

The Average Directional Index (ADX), which gauges trend strength, registers at 25.23, barely confirming a trend establishment for Bitcoin on the daily chart. This indicates that the current daily downtrend is not overwhelmingly strong in the long term, though it has significantly impacted recent bullish momentum.

Shorter Timeframes Show Accelerating Downward Momentum

A closer look at shorter timeframes, specifically the four-hour chart, highlights an accelerating bearish trend. The RSI on this timeframe plunges to 32.74, while the ADX rockets to 34.63, firmly placing it in “strong trend” territory. This divergence suggests that downward momentum is intensifying rather than slowing.

Compounding the bearish outlook, the four-hour chart also shows a “death cross” formation. This occurs when the 50-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crosses below the 200-EMA, signaling structural damage that typically indicates a prolonged downtrend. The Ichimoku Cloud indicator further supports this, with Bitcoin trading decisively below the cloud on both daily and four-hour timeframes, and the future cloud displaying bearish red coloration.

Prediction Market Dismisses Immediate Recovery to $115K

Adding to the technical signals, prediction markets are heavily betting against a rapid recovery. According to Myriad, there is a 95% probability that Bitcoin will not reach $115,000 by Friday. This widespread lack of confidence aligns with the technical setup, which indicates that a recovery to that level would require an extraordinary shift in momentum, given the multiple resistance layers overhead.

While the $120,000 target is not entirely out of reach in the long term, it would necessitate a fundamental momentum change currently absent from the market. Bitcoin had previously established $120,000 as a comfortable equilibrium zone over several sessions since July, contrasting with its distance from the $100,000 mark since June.

Key Takeaways for Traders

Considering the four-hour death cross, bearish Ichimoku clouds, strong ADX readings on shorter timeframes, and overwhelming prediction market consensus, the probability matrix strongly favors Bitcoin testing $100,000 before returning to $120,000. The immediate path to $106,000 appears highly probable within the next 48 hours. If this support level fails to hold, the psychologically significant $100,000 mark is likely to become a magnetic target, potentially triggering further algorithmic selling.