Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin’s price has recently dipped into the $113,000 zone, a move identified by analysts as a critical support level and potentially one of the last significant “discounts” before the cryptocurrency targets new all-time highs. This correction comes ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, with market expectations leaning towards interest rate cuts. The current price action is being closely watched as new investors appear to be absorbing supply from larger holders, signaling a potential structural shift in market dynamics.
Bitcoin’s Recent Price Action and Technical Outlook
Despite defying bearish seasonality with a nearly 6% rally in September, Bitcoin recently topped near a major supply zone between $115,600 and $117,300. The asset is currently undergoing a mild correction, dipping below $114,500 on Monday. Analysts suggest that a decisive close above $117,300 would signal a potential push toward new highs, while the current dip could present a favorable buying opportunity.
From a technical standpoint, the critical retest zone for Bitcoin sits between $111,000 and $113,000. This pattern mirrors a structure observed in Q2, where the market absorbed liquidity near $105,000 after an initial rejection before breaking out to fresh highs above $120,000 in July. For the current uptrend to remain intact, Bitcoin must hold this $111,000–$113,000 range, as a deviation below it would weaken the bullish case.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports this view, having reclaimed the 50 level and now testing it as support. Historically, this setup has preceded renewed buying momentum, as was seen in June. Crypto analyst ShayanBTC further reinforced this constructive outlook, stating, “The combination of a technical structure shift and miner accumulation provides a constructive outlook. As long as $112K holds, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to sustain momentum.”
On-Chain Metrics Point to Strong Accumulation
The significance of the $113,000 zone as a technical support is further highlighted by the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric, which maps Bitcoin supply by purchase price. Recent data indicates that a substantial 5.5% of BTC supply has shifted hands between $110,000 and $113,000, making this one of the most actively accumulated ranges in recent weeks. This suggests a strong base of holders who have positioned themselves here, indicating conviction in the long-term value at this level.
This accumulation trend is reinforced by the behavior of different wallet cohorts. Since July 2024, “Shark” wallets, holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, have collectively added nearly 1 million BTC, increasing their total balance to 5.939 million BTC. This steady rise signals the entry of fresh mid-sized players building their exposure to Bitcoin.
Conversely, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr noted significant distribution from larger cohorts. “Whale” wallets, holding 1,000–10,000 BTC, have reduced their holdings by 324,000 BTC since March 2024, while “Humpback” wallets, with ≥10,000 BTC, cut their balance by 391,000 BTC. In total, approximately 715,000 BTC have been released into the market since last year’s peaks.
Crucially, this substantial supply has been absorbed, primarily by smaller, newer participants. This structural shift, where new money is entering the market and taking on supply from established large holders, underlines why the $113,000 level could mark one of the last meaningful “discounts” before a renewed push towards higher prices.
Looking Ahead
The confluence of technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and analyst sentiment points to the $111,000-$113,000 zone as a pivotal support level for Bitcoin. Should this range hold amid broader market expectations of interest rate cuts, it could solidify the foundation for a sustained rally, potentially paving the way for the cryptocurrency to achieve new highs.
