A digital illustration of a bear with glowing red eyes slashing through a red financial chart, symbolizing a stock market downturn

This digital art piece visually represents a bear market, with a fierce bear slashing through a stock chart and causing prices to crash downward. By MDL.

Finance

Bitcoin’s $50,000 Bottom? Why October Could Trigger a Bear Market

Bitcoin may enter a bear market by October, potentially hitting $50K in 2026, per cycle theory.

byAndres Castro

September 4, 2025, 1:55 PM

Executive Summary

Bitcoin could enter a bear market as early as October, potentially bottoming out at $50,000 by October 2026, according to the four-year price cycle theory.

The reliability of the four-year cycle analysis is being questioned due to new market dynamics such as Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional demand.

In the immediate term, Bitcoin is attempting to break resistance, with market participants watching the $100,000 support level as a key indicator for the current bull market’s continuation.

The Story So Far

The prediction of an upcoming Bitcoin bear market, potentially bottoming out at $50,000 by October 2026, is based on the historical four-year price cycle theory, which suggests the cryptocurrency is nearing a significant correction phase, though the reliability of this traditional pattern is being questioned by new market dynamics such as Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and growing institutional demand, while a broader U.S. macroasset bear market could further intensify any downward pressure.

Why This Matters

This analysis predicts a significant Bitcoin bear market starting as early as October, potentially bottoming at $50,000 by October 2026, challenging the prevailing narrative of continuous growth driven by new market factors like ETFs and institutional demand. Such a downturn would not only test the enduring validity of Bitcoin’s historical four-year price cycles against evolving market fundamentals but also necessitate a recalibration of investor expectations and strategies, especially if it coincides with a broader U.S. macroasset bear market.

Who Thinks What?

An analysis based on the historical four-year price cycle theory projects Bitcoin is nearing a bear market by October, potentially bottoming out at $50,000 by October 2026, with 2025 marking a final peak before a sharp correction.

Some market participants and new crypto enthusiasts question the validity of the four-year cycle theory, arguing that new market dynamics like Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional demand could lead to continuous upward momentum, suggesting the cycle is over.

Other market participants are closely watching immediate price action, indicating that failure for Bitcoin to hold the $100,000 support level could signal the end of the current bull market.

Bitcoin could be on the cusp of a bear market as early as October, potentially bottoming out at $50,000 by October 2026, according to an analysis based on the historical four-year price cycle theory. This projection suggests the cryptocurrency is nearing the end of its current cycle, with a significant correction on the horizon.

Upcoming Market Cycle and Price Targets

The forecast posits that if the four-year cycle theory remains valid, Bitcoin is approaching a historical bear market period. Charts illustrating the so-called “Repetition Fractal Cycle” indicate BTC/USD is heading towards this phase as soon as next month.

Should this bear market materialize, the analysis sets a price target of $50,000 for October 2026. This potential downturn follows a period where Bitcoin has been battling a critical resistance trend line.

Challenges to the Four-Year Cycle

The reliability of this fractal analysis is being questioned amidst significant market speculation, particularly around Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and growing institutional demand. These new market dynamics could potentially disrupt historical patterns and cycles.

Furthermore, the analysis suggests that a broader U.S. macroasset bear market could coincide with Bitcoin’s predicted cycle. Such a confluence of events could act as a “nail in the coffin” for Bitcoin bulls, intensifying downward pressure.

Immediate Price Action and Key Levels

In the immediate term, Bitcoin is attempting to break through a downward-sloping trend line that has acted as a price ceiling during the current correction. Market participants are closely watching for a potential retest of the $100,000 support level.

One trader indicates that failure to hold the $100,000 mark could signal the end of the current bull market. This crucial level is seen as a key indicator for the market’s short-term direction.

The Debate: Cycles vs. New Era

A central debate among market participants revolves around whether the four-year cycle is truly over. A new wave of crypto enthusiasts claims Bitcoin will now rise endlessly, driven by new market factors.

Conversely, the analysis suggests that 2025 might mark the final peak before a sharp correction. This perspective anticipates prices potentially sinking below $50,000 in the 2026 bear market, challenging the narrative of continuous upward momentum.

Ultimately, the coming months will test the enduring validity of historical Bitcoin cycles against evolving market fundamentals and increasing institutional interest, determining its trajectory into 2026.