Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a “dramatic” price surge if it deviates from its established four-year market cycle, though he also notes that a bull market high could occur “any day now” should the historical pattern hold. Brandt identified Sunday as a crucial date for the current cycle’s potential peak, a prediction derived from Bitcoin’s consistent pre- and post-halving price movements observed in previous cycles.
Brandt’s Cycle Analysis
Brandt’s analysis is based on Bitcoin’s historical cycle pattern, which has unfolded consistently across three previous cycles. He explained that the duration from a cycle low to a halving event, and then from the halving to the subsequent bull market high, has historically been equal.
For the current cycle, Brandt noted that Bitcoin’s low on November 9, 2022, occurred 533 days before the April 20, 2024 halving. Adding another 533 days from the halving pointed to a “bingo” date around Sunday, October 27, just one day before Bitcoin set a new all-time high earlier this week.
Potential for “Dramatic” Shift
While acknowledging the strength of Bitcoin’s historical cycles, Brandt emphasized that “there is always an ‘except.’” He stated that trends violating prevailing cyclic or seasonal market behaviors typically result in the most dramatic price actions.
Brandt indicated he is 50/50 on whether the cycle will repeat or break. Should Bitcoin deviate from its historical pattern, he expressed a bullish outlook, expecting a move “well beyond $150,000,” potentially reaching as high as $185,000.
Debate Over Cycle Relevance
Brandt’s insights come amidst an ongoing debate within the crypto community regarding the continued relevance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Factors such as increasing institutional adoption, the proliferation of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), and corporate digital asset treasuries are seen by some as potential disruptors to past patterns.
Other analysts have also weighed in on Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital suggested in July that if Bitcoin follows the 2020 pattern, the market could peak in October. Saad Ahmed, head of APAC at Gemini, attributed market cycles to investor excitement and subsequent overextension, leading to corrections.
Broader Market Outlook
Looking ahead, several analysts anticipate significant gains for Bitcoin before the end of the year and into 2025. Economist Timothy Peterson indicated a 50% chance Bitcoin could end the current month above $140,000, based on simulations using a decade of data.
More ambitious long-term predictions include BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained’s director of market research, Joe Burnett, who both forecast Bitcoin reaching as high as $250,000 by the end of 2025.
