Finance

Bitcoin’s Bull Run Incoming? Gold’s Dip and a Historically Low Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Hint at a Major Crypto Rebound

Bitcoin may rebound as gold pulls back, with analysts predicting a rally to $165,000.

October 19, 2025, 9:17 AM

A person with a pickaxe mines digital gold, represented by glowing coins, in a dark mine.

A miner with a pickaxe symbolically extracts digital gold, representing the complex process of Bitcoin mining in a dark, virtual mine. By MDL.

Executive Summary

Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential bottoming out, with gold’s recent pullback from record highs potentially catalyzing a significant rebound for the cryptocurrency.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen to historically low levels, a pattern that has previously preceded substantial Bitcoin price rallies ranging from 100% to 600%.

Analysts project Bitcoin could reach between $150,000 and $165,000 by year-end or in 2025, with some asserting its undervaluation relative to gold.

The Story So Far

The current market dynamic sees gold correcting after reaching all-time highs, a period during which Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery and its price-to-gold ratio has dropped to historically low levels. This specific interplay is crucial because, in past market cycles, such a low Bitcoin-to-gold ratio and gold’s cooling rally have consistently preceded significant Bitcoin bull runs, leading analysts to believe the cryptocurrency may now be undervalued and poised for a major upward movement.

Why This Matters

The recent pullback in gold prices from record highs, combined with a historically low Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, signals a potential “generational bottom” for Bitcoin. This dynamic, which has historically preceded significant Bitcoin bull runs, suggests the cryptocurrency may be currently undervalued, potentially setting the stage for substantial price increases and a shift in investor focus from gold to Bitcoin, with some analysts projecting targets between $150,000 and $165,000.

Who Thinks What?

Analysts, including Pat and Alex Wacy, believe Bitcoin is finding a “generational bottom” and is poised for a significant rebound, citing gold’s recent pullback and the historically low Bitcoin-to-gold ratio as signals that have previously preceded substantial bull runs.

JPMorgan analysts project Bitcoin could reach $165,000 in 2025, asserting its undervaluation relative to gold, while analyst Charles Edwards suggests a break above $120,000 could quickly propel Bitcoin to $150,000.

HSBC maintains a strong bullish outlook on gold, forecasting a potential rise to $5,000 per ounce by 2026 due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and a weakening U.S. dollar.

Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential bottoming out, with analysts suggesting that gold’s recent pullback from record highs could catalyze a significant rebound for the cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has dropped to historically low levels, a pattern that has previously preceded substantial Bitcoin bull runs, while some projections indicate BTC could reach between $150,000 and $165,000 by year-end or in 2025.

Gold’s Pullback and Bitcoin’s Response

Gold recently hit an all-time high of approximately $4,380 per ounce before experiencing a 2.90% correction. Despite this dip, the precious metal has surged over 62.25% year-to-date, with its daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) consistently indicating overbought conditions in the past month.

During gold’s correction, Bitcoin saw a nearly 4% increase, recovering from its lowest point in four months, near $103,535. Its RSI reading is currently at its lowest since April, a technical setup that has historically heralded rebounds of 60% or more.

Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Signals Potential Bottom

This inverse price action between gold and Bitcoin leads some analysts to believe Bitcoin is finding a bottom. Analyst Pat, for instance, has predicted a “generational bottom” for Bitcoin, highlighting its performance relative to gold over the last four years.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen to levels last observed in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Historically, these lows have been followed by Bitcoin price rallies ranging from 100% to 600%. As of mid-October, the ratio remains below –2.5, suggesting Bitcoin may be undervalued compared to gold after the latter’s significant run.

Analyst Alex Wacy draws parallels between gold’s current pullback and its 2020 peak, which coincided with a local Bitcoin bottom. The question for many market observers is whether this pattern will repeat, signaling a bullish reversal for BTC.

Conflicting Outlooks on Gold and Bitcoin Price Targets

Contrary to some views, HSBC maintains a strong bullish outlook on gold, forecasting a potential rise to $5,000 per ounce by 2026. The bank attributes this sustained demand to ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and a weakening U.S. dollar, expecting long-term investors to drive this trend.

Echoing a similar sentiment, JPMorgan analysts project Bitcoin could reach $165,000 in 2025, asserting its undervaluation relative to gold. Separately, analyst Charles Edwards suggests that a decisive break above $120,000 could swiftly propel Bitcoin towards $150,000.

Market Outlook

The interplay between gold’s recent market dynamics and Bitcoin’s historical performance suggests a critical juncture for the cryptocurrency. With the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio signaling a potential undervaluation and several analysts forecasting substantial price increases, market watchers are closely observing whether gold’s cooling rally will indeed ignite Bitcoin’s next bull phase.