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Finance

Bitcoin’s Bull Run Isn’t Over: Why Analysts See $112K+ as a Springboard, Not a Ceiling

Bitcoin briefly rose above $112,000; firm says bull market isn’t over, despite liquidations and volatility.

byAndres Castro

September 29, 2025, 6:32 AM

Executive Summary

Bitcoin briefly recovered above $112,000 after a volatile week that saw over $4 billion in crypto long positions liquidated.

XWIN Research Japan asserts that Bitcoin’s bull market is “not over,” citing on-chain data like the MVRV ratio and long-term holder behavior as indicators of underlying resilience.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has shifted to “Neutral” (score 50) for the first time since September 19, indicating an improvement in market sentiment.

The Story So Far

Bitcoin’s recent recovery above $112,000 follows a challenging period of significant market volatility that saw over $4 billion in crypto long positions liquidated, leading to investor exhaustion. However, this rebound is being interpreted by analysts as a “period of digestion” rather than the end of a bull market, based on resilient on-chain data such as the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio indicating a cooling but not overheated market, and a decrease in profit-taking by long-term investors, further supported by a shift in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to “Neutral.”

Why This Matters

Despite recent volatility and significant liquidations, analysis suggests Bitcoin’s bull market is far from over, with on-chain data indicating underlying resilience and a “period of digestion” rather than a terminal decline. This outlook, coupled with an improving sentiment index, implies that the cryptocurrency may be poised for a renewed expansion phase, potentially drawing in further investment and driving prices higher as long-term holders reduce selling pressure.

Who Thinks What?

XWIN Research Japan asserts that Bitcoin’s bull market is “not over,” citing on-chain data, long-term holder behavior, and the MVRV ratio, suggesting recent pullbacks are a “period of digestion” before a stronger expansion phase.

The broader crypto market recently experienced significant volatility, with over $4 billion in long positions liquidated and Bitcoin struggling to maintain its price, though the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has since shifted to “Neutral.”

Bitcoin briefly recovered above $112,000 on Monday after a week of significant volatility, prompting a crypto investment firm to assert that the cryptocurrency’s bull market is “not over.” This upturn follows a period where Bitcoin struggled to gain ground, marked by investor exhaustion and two major liquidation events across the broader crypto market.

Analyst Firm Calls for Continued Bull Market

XWIN Research Japan, in a note published on CryptoQuant on Sunday, argued that despite recent market turbulence, on-chain data points to Bitcoin’s underlying resilience. The firm specifically highlighted long-term holder behavior and Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio as indicators that the uptrend persists.

According to XWIN, Bitcoin’s recent pullbacks appear to be a “period of digestion” rather than the end of a rally. The MVRV ratio, which compares market value to the average cost basis of holders, has dropped to 2, indicating that the average cost basis is approximately half of Bitcoin’s current price.

Historically, XWIN noted, this MVRV range reflects neither panic nor euphoria, suggesting that investors are still profitable but the market has cooled from overheated conditions. The firm added that past cycles have often seen Bitcoin enter its “strongest expansion phase” after consolidating within this MVRV range.

Furthermore, a decrease in profit-taking by long-term investors is “effectively reducing available supply,” XWIN explained. This reduction, it suggests, offsets short-term volatility and creates conditions for renewed demand to drive prices higher, signaling that “this cycle has not reached its terminal stage.”

Liquidations and Sentiment Shift

Bitcoin’s recovery follows a challenging period where over $4 billion in crypto long positions were liquidated within seven days. A significant event on Monday, September 22, saw nearly $3 billion in long positions wiped out as Bitcoin fell 3% below $112,000, dragging down the wider market.

This was compounded by another $1 billion liquidation of total crypto longs on Thursday, when Bitcoin dropped to $109,000. Bitcoin accounted for $726 million of the liquidated longs on September 22, while Ether (ETH) long bets led on Thursday with $413 million erased, according to CoinGlass data.

Amidst these movements, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a sentiment tracker, has shifted to “Neutral” for the first time since Friday, September 19. The index reached a score of 50 out of 100 on Monday, marking a 13-point increase from Sunday and continuing an uptrend from its mid-April low of 28.

Market Outlook

The recent surge above $112,000 and the analysis from XWIN Research Japan indicate a potential turning point for Bitcoin. Despite a volatile week characterized by significant liquidations, on-chain metrics and improving market sentiment suggest that the cryptocurrency’s upward trajectory may continue.