Finance

Bitcoin’s Cycle Shattered? Arthur Hayes Predicts Sustained Ascent Fueled by Fed and Trump’s Policies

Hayes predicts Bitcoin‘s rise continues, fueled by global money supply, defying traditional cycles.

October 9, 2025, 9:39 PM

A blue flag with a gold bitcoin symbol in the center, representing the concept of cryptocurrency in Michigan.

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Executive Summary

Crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes asserts that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle has ended, predicting a sustained upward trend influenced by an expanding global money supply.

Hayes attributes this shift to macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts (advocated by President Trump) and China’s policies, which he believes signal a continuous supply of cheaper money for digital assets.

Experts remain divided on Bitcoin’s post-halving trajectory, with some suggesting a peak is already in, while others point to new variables like spot Bitcoin ETFs as factors disrupting traditional cycle dynamics and potentially driving new highs.

The Story So Far

Crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes contends that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle, which typically culminates in a peak the year after its halving, is being fundamentally altered by macroeconomic shifts, primarily an expanding global money supply driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts—advocated by President Donald Trump—and China’s accommodating policies, which together create a “risk-on” environment for assets like Bitcoin, a dynamic further influenced by the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Why This Matters

Crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes’s assertion that Bitcoin’s traditional market cycle is over fundamentally shifts understanding of its future, predicting sustained growth driven by an expanding global money supply influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policies, supported by President Trump’s advocacy for lower rates, and China’s monetary stance. This new paradigm, further complicated by the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, suggests that macroeconomic factors and new financial products will increasingly dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory, moving beyond halving-centric predictions and creating significant division among experts regarding its long-term performance.

Who Thinks What?

Crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes asserts that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle has concluded, predicting a sustained upward trend driven by an expanding global money supply influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve policies and China, which fosters “risk-on” assets.

Many traders and analysts, including blockchain data firm CoinGlass, anticipate an imminent cycle top and subsequent crash, believing historical patterns are still relevant and that Bitcoin’s peak may already be in.

Other experts are divided: Gabe Selby of CF Benchmarks believes new factors like spot Bitcoin ETFs disrupt traditional cycles, forecasting new highs and a persistent reflationary impulse, while Adam McCarthy of Kaiko cautions that crypto is too young to establish reliable patterns.

Crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes asserts that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle has concluded, predicting a sustained upward trend for the leading cryptocurrency. In his recent blog post, “Long Live the King,” Hayes argues that an expanding global money supply, influenced by policies from the U.S. Federal Reserve and China, will continue to benefit digital assets like Bitcoin.

Hayes Challenges Traditional Cycle Theory

Hayes contends that while many traders anticipate an imminent cycle top and subsequent crash, historical patterns are being misapplied without understanding their underlying economic drivers. Bitcoin’s typical cycle involves reaching a peak the year after its halving event, followed by a significant 70-80% price correction in the subsequent year. However, this cycle saw Bitcoin hit an all-time high in 2024 before its halving, deviating from previous trends.

Macroeconomic Drivers and Political Influence

The former BitMEX chief, who received a pardon from President Donald Trump this year, attributes this shift to broader macroeconomic factors. He highlights the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts and China’s apparent reluctance to impede global fiat credit growth as key drivers for digital asset appreciation.

President Trump has publicly advocated for lower interest rates, which the Fed initiated in September, even as inflation remains above target. Lower interest rates typically foster an environment where “risk-on” assets, including cryptocurrencies and stocks, tend to perform well due to increased liquidity.

Hayes emphasizes that monetary authorities in Washington and Beijing are signaling cheaper and more plentiful money, a scenario he believes will continue to fuel Bitcoin’s ascent.

Expert Divisions and New Variables

However, experts remain divided on Bitcoin’s post-halving trajectory. Analysts like blockchain data firm CoinGlass have suggested that Bitcoin’s peak may already be in, aligning with past cycle behavior.

Conversely, others point to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs last year as a significant new factor, potentially disrupting traditional cycle dynamics and generating new highs both before and after the halving. Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, noted that the current cycle appears undervalued by 20-50% relative to prevailing liquidity conditions.

Selby forecasts a persistent reflationary impulse as monetary easing expands across advanced economies into 2026. Adam McCarthy, Senior Research Analyst at Kaiko, offered a cautious perspective, stating that “Crypto is 16 years old. You can’t figure out a pattern for an asset that young.”

Outlook on Bitcoin’s Future

Arthur Hayes’s latest analysis challenges conventional wisdom regarding Bitcoin’s market cycles, positing that evolving global monetary policies will drive continued growth. While his bullish outlook contrasts with some traditional cycle predictions, the influence of new financial products like spot Bitcoin ETFs and broader economic shifts introduces unprecedented variables into Bitcoin’s future performance.