Finance

Bitcoin’s Dip Below $100K: Is This the Last Chance to Buy Before $200K?

Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will dip under $100K before hitting $200K by year-end.

byAndres Castro

October 22, 2025, 3:36 PM

A physical bitcoin coin sits on a wooden table in front of a red graph illustrating a bear market.

The physical bitcoin sits on the table as the red graph suggests a looming bear market. By MDL.

Executive Summary

Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick anticipates Bitcoin will temporarily dip below $100,000 due to U.S.-China tariff developments, but he maintains a $200,000 year-end price target.

The current market volatility and anticipated “fear-driven selloff” for Bitcoin are primarily driven by ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, exacerbated by the Trump administration’s trade policies.

A recent “sell gold, buy Bitcoin” trend has emerged, with a sharp gold selloff coinciding with a Bitcoin bounce, which analysts see as potentially constructive for Bitcoin finding a low.

The Story So Far

The current volatility and anticipated dip in Bitcoin’s price are primarily driven by ongoing trade tensions and tariff developments between the United States and China, which have historically impacted market sentiment, further exacerbated by a broader geopolitical climate where the Trump administration is actively pursuing various international trade deals, influencing global economic stability and investor behavior.

Why This Matters

The anticipated dip of Bitcoin below $100,000, driven by U.S.-China tariff developments under the Trump administration, underscores the cryptocurrency’s growing sensitivity to global geopolitical and macroeconomic events. While this short-term “fear-driven selloff” is expected, experts maintain an optimistic long-term outlook, viewing this downturn as a potentially fleeting event before a significant rally towards new record highs by year-end. This suggests that while external factors can cause significant volatility, the underlying bullish sentiment for Bitcoin remains strong.

Who Thinks What?

Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, anticipates Bitcoin will temporarily dip below $100,000 due to “fear-driven selloff” linked to U.S.-China tariff developments, yet maintains a year-end price target of $200,000, viewing the dip as potentially the “last time” at that valuation.

Market observers note that while Bitcoin has historically seen strong gains in October and November, current market dynamics, influenced by ongoing trade tensions and previous tariff announcements, differ significantly from past trends.

Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, anticipates that Bitcoin’s price will dip below $100,000 amidst a “fear-driven selloff” linked to U.S.-China tariff developments. Despite this projected short-term decline, Kendrick maintains his year-end price target of $200,000 for the leading cryptocurrency. As of Wednesday, Bitcoin was trading around $108,200, having already seen a 12% decrease from its recent all-time high of $126,000 over the past 16 days.

Market Dynamics and Price Predictions

Kendrick suggested that a temporary drop below the $100,000 psychological barrier appears “inevitable.” He posited that this could mark the “last time” Bitcoin trades at such a valuation, though he acknowledged the inherent uncertainty of predicting the exact bottom before the asset finds a new base. This current market volatility is largely attributed to the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China.

Historically, October and November have been Bitcoin’s strongest months, famously dubbed “Uptober” by market observers, with average gains of 19.8% and 46% respectively since 2013, according to CoinGlass. However, the current market dynamics differ significantly from previous years. Bitcoin previously plunged to $76,300 in April following announcements of “reciprocal” tariffs by the White House.

Gold and Geopolitical Context

In recent months, gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, had outperformed Bitcoin. This trend, however, showed signs of reversal on Tuesday when a sharp gold selloff coincided with a strong intraday bounce for Bitcoin. Kendrick interpreted this as a potential “sell gold, buy Bitcoin” flow, suggesting it could be constructive for a Bitcoin low. Gold’s price continued to slip on Wednesday, trading around $4,075 per ounce after reaching a record $4,381 just days prior.

The broader economic climate, influenced by geopolitical tensions, plays a crucial role in these market movements. The Trump administration has been actively pursuing trade deals with various nations, including China, the U.S.’s largest trading partner. Concurrently, reports indicate India may soon reach an agreement with the U.S. to reduce oil purchases from Russia, with crude oil prices seeing a 2.3% rise to $58.5 a barrel.

Outlook

Despite the immediate downturn driven by macroeconomic concerns, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin, as presented by Standard Chartered, remains optimistic. The anticipated dip below $100,000 is framed as a potentially fleeting event before a significant push towards new record highs later in the year.