Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin experienced a notable decline on Thursday, falling below the $110,000 mark and dipping under $109,500 after failing to maintain a critical resistance level around $112,000 following the Wall Street open. The cryptocurrency’s 2% daily dip occurred despite new U.S. jobs data indicating a weakening labor market, which typically might offer a boost to risk assets, leaving market participants to weigh potential further downside against key support levels.
Bitcoin Struggles Against Resistance
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD losses exceeding 2% on the day. Bulls were unable to convert the $112,000 area into sustainable support, and despite the U.S. unemployment numbers suggesting a softening labor market, selling pressure persisted.
Popular trader BitBull commented on X, stating that “$BTC got rejected from its major resistance level.” BitBull further warned that “Until the $114K level is reclaimed on the daily timeframe, every BTC move will just be a bull trap,” suggesting a potential “big correction before reversal” if the level is not quickly reclaimed.
Critical Support and Upside Targets
Many market participants are now reportedly anticipating a retest of the $100,000 support level in the short term. However, crypto market insight firm Swissblock identified “critical support” at $110,000, citing an area of high trading volume.
Swissblock also noted that resistance to the upside was thinning, stating, “Bitcoin is breaking out from the critical zone: a straight slide to $100K was never the base case. The wall resisted, until now.” The firm indicated that after a pullback, fresh momentum would be needed to clear the “$113.6K–$115.6K gate” before contending with “heavy resistance into $118K.”
Macroeconomic Headwinds and Gold’s Rise
The broader macroeconomic landscape, characterized by weaker labor market signals, has increased the odds of the Federal Reserve implementing an interest rate cut on September 17. However, trading firm Mosaic Asset expressed caution, suggesting that this potential cut could be a “one and done” scenario for the Fed.
Mosaic Asset warned that inflationary pressures continue to build, with inflation-sensitive areas of capital markets moving higher. This sentiment aligns with observations from Mosaic Asset and trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, which highlighted gold’s recent breakout, outperforming both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The Kobeissi Letter attributed gold’s strength to a combination of the market pricing in higher long-term inflation and increased deficit spending. “Deficit spending is flooding the US Treasury market with supply. Gold has become the GLOBAL safe haven asset,” Kobeissi wrote on X.
In summary, Bitcoin is navigating a challenging period, marked by a failure to hold key resistance levels and sustained downside pressure. While some analysts point to critical support, broader macroeconomic concerns regarding inflation and the performance of traditional safe havens like gold are adding complexity to the cryptocurrency’s immediate outlook.