Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Despite recent market volatility and significant liquidations, Bitcoin’s bull market structure remains largely intact due to sustained accumulation by “dolphin” investors, according to a CryptoQuant report released on Thursday. This cohort, holding between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC, has continued to buy Bitcoin even after a $19 billion market liquidation earlier this month, signaling underlying long-term strength.
Dolphin Accumulation Signals Strength
CryptoQuant’s analysis indicates that the “dolphin” investor group has significantly contributed to Bitcoin’s resilience. Their annual holdings have grown by 907,000 BTC, a figure considered robust and historically correlated with upward price momentum. This accumulation suggests a strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, even amidst short-term price fluctuations.
However, the report also advises near-term caution. The 30-day balance of this investor group has dipped below its 30-day moving average, suggesting a temporary decrease in short-term demand. Analysts believe that a new catalyst, such as sustained inflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), could reignite bullish momentum.
Market Stabilization and Altcoin Resurgence
The broader crypto market, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, has seen a minor uptick despite prevailing macroeconomic headwinds. Bitcoin recently climbed nearly 2% over 24 hours, reaching a high of $109,405, which has spurred a rally in the altcoin market, according to CoinGecko data.
Experts like Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research, suggest that Bitcoin may be bottoming out, anticipating an upward trajectory. This sentiment is echoed by Quinn Thompson, CIO of Lekker Capital, who likened the current market setup for Bitcoin and Ethereum to the period before President Trump’s 2024 victory.
Historical data supports this optimistic outlook. Valter Rebelo, head of digital assets at Empiricus, highlighted that after a 30% to 40% rise in open interest, Bitcoin has a 75% chance of positive returns in the subsequent three months, with a mean performance of approximately 25.9%.
Renewed Risk Appetite in Altcoins
Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins are demonstrating a renewed appetite for risk. While trading volumes for the top two cryptocurrencies have decreased since October 21, altcoin volume dominance has risen by 33% to 46%, as per CoinGlass data. This shift suggests that traders are increasingly speculating on the broader crypto market.
Specific altcoins like World Liberty Financial, Hyperliquid, and Solana have posted notable returns, with 13%, 5.9%, and 5.8% respectively over 24 hours. This resurgence in altcoin trading volume indicates a potential broadening of investor confidence beyond just the major cryptocurrencies.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s market stability is being bolstered by consistent accumulation from “dolphin” investors, despite recent liquidations. While short-term demand shows signs of waning, the long-term bullish structure remains intact. The broader crypto market is also showing signs of a turnaround, with altcoins experiencing increased trading volume and investor interest, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics.
