Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant downturn, tumbling over 13.75% from its recent record high of $124,500, a move that saw the cryptocurrency break below a crucial multiyear uptrend support line. This decline has sparked concerns among investors about a deeper correction in the market. However, some analysts suggest that this price action might be a classic “fakeout,” anticipating a potential recovery rather than the onset of a prolonged bear market, even as a decisive break could see BTC drop to $80,000 by the end of 2025.
The recent price movement has rattled the market, with Bitcoin dipping below a support level that has historically underpinned its bull runs. While such breaches can signal trouble, historical patterns indicate that temporary dips below these parabolic support curves have not always led to a bear market, particularly when momentum indicators remain resilient.
Historically, significant market trouble for Bitcoin has emerged when both the parabolic support and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) support break simultaneously. Currently, despite Bitcoin falling below its multiyear trendline by late August 2025 (as per the source’s timeline), the RSI is reportedly holding above its uptrend, offering a glimmer of hope for a recovery.
The real test for Bitcoin’s price will occur if the RSI also breaks below its trendline support. Should this happen, analysts suggest that BTC could retreat toward its 50-week exponential moving average (50-2W EMA), potentially reaching approximately $80,000 by the close of 2025, a scenario that would mirror previous price corrections.
Analysts See Current Drop as a ‘Fakeout’
Popular crypto analyst BitBull describes the current market breakdown as a likely “fakeout.” According to BitBull, even a “capitulation wick below $100,000” would be consistent with Bitcoin’s historical tendency to shake out less committed investors before staging a robust recovery.
In this view, the price range of $80,000 to $100,000 could serve as both a target for bearish sentiment and a critical springboard for Bitcoin’s next upward leg. This perspective suggests that the current volatility is a strategic market maneuver rather than an indicator of a long-term decline.
Pi Cycle Top Model Suggests Further Upside
Echoing this optimistic sentiment, market analyst SuperBro points to the Pi Cycle Top model, an indicator historically reliable in signaling Bitcoin’s cycle peaks. This model is constructed using two specific moving averages: the 111-day simple moving average (111SMA) and twice the 350-day simple moving average (350SMA x 2).
Historically, a crossover where the faster 111SMA rises above the slower 350SMA x 2 has marked major market tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021, indicating an overheated market. Critically, SuperBro notes that no such crossover has occurred in the current cycle, suggesting that Bitcoin has not yet reached its peak. The analyst predicts that BTC’s price could ultimately top out at $280,000.
In summary, while Bitcoin’s recent drop below a key multiyear support trendline has triggered fears of a deeper correction, analysts are largely viewing this as a potential “fakeout” designed to shake out weaker hands. The resilience of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is seen as crucial for a recovery, with a possible drop to $80,000 if this indicator fails. Despite the current volatility, some market observers believe the long-term bull market remains intact, with potential for significant future gains.
