Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are engaged in a critical battle to reclaim three significant moving averages as support this week, according to new analysis from Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators. This technical struggle comes as the cryptocurrency market braces for a potentially volatile period marked by upcoming monthly and quarterly candle closes, alongside a series of key U.S. macroeconomic data releases.
Bitcoin Battles Key Moving Averages
Alan highlighted that the 21-day, 50-day, and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) have converged into a narrow range, currently acting as resistance for Bitcoin’s spot price. He noted that these trend lines are “all really closely wound right now,” creating a pivotal zone for the asset.
As of Monday, BTC/USD traded immediately above the 50-day SMA but below the other two, despite having closed above all three trend lines earlier in the day. Alan emphasized the importance of sustained price action, advising traders to monitor how daily candles conclude.
He stated that the ability to flip these SMAs into support would be a “key thing to watch” for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory, underscoring that “it’s not how you start the day, it’s not even what’s happening in the middle of the day; it’s how you finish.”
Upcoming Volatility Catalysts
Beyond technical indicators, the market faces several external factors that could trigger significant price swings. Throughout the week, a raft of U.S. employment-related macroeconomic data is expected, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates.
Adding to the uncertainty is the looming threat of a U.S. government shutdown, slated for October 1, which could further impact risk-asset performance. These events coincide with the highly anticipated monthly and quarterly candle closes, historically periods of increased volatility.
Alan specifically noted that “A Daily candle close above the 21-Day SMA would be a sign of strength, but only if it holds through the Monthly open,” adding a layer of temporal context to his analysis.
Outlook Ahead
The confluence of critical technical levels and significant macroeconomic and calendar events positions Bitcoin for a potentially decisive week. Traders are closely watching for definitive daily closes that could signal whether bulls can secure these key moving averages and maintain upward momentum amidst a landscape of heightened uncertainty.
