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Finance

Bitcoin’s Next Ascent: Why Analysts See $300,000 as the New Target Amid Gold Correlation

Analysts predict Bitcoin rally to $300K, citing gold correlation & bullish patterns after recent dip.

byAndres Castro

September 29, 2025, 8:50 AM

Executive Summary

Analysts project a significant Bitcoin rally, with price targets up to $300,000, based on historical gold correlation and bullish technical patterns.

Technical indicators, including a “massive cup and handle” pattern on the BTC/XAU chart, suggest Bitcoin’s bull market is far from over and could see substantial outperformance relative to gold.

For a continued rally, Bitcoin must hold above the $112,000 level and decisively break through the $114,000 resistance zone to confirm a breakout towards $140,000 and potentially higher.

The Story So Far

Analysts are projecting a significant rally for Bitcoin due to its historical tendency to follow gold’s price movements with a delay, particularly after gold’s recent breakout, and the emergence of bullish technical patterns like a “massive cup and handle” on the BTC/XAU chart, which historically precede significant price increases.

Why This Matters

Despite recent price volatility, several analysts are projecting a significant rally for Bitcoin, with potential price targets as high as $300,000, driven by historical correlations with gold and bullish technical patterns. This outlook suggests that Bitcoin’s bull market is likely to continue, potentially leading to substantial gains for investors, though overcoming key resistance levels will be crucial for these predictions to fully materialize.

Who Thinks What?

Analyst Milk Road Macro projects a significant “last-minute spike” for Bitcoin through October and November, predicting 50-100% upside gains to $160,000-$220,000, based on Bitcoin’s historical tendency to follow gold’s price movements with a delay and outperform its percentage returns.

Dan Tapiero, CEO of 50TFunds, along with crypto investor Zynx and CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan, maintains that Bitcoin’s bull market has “not started yet” and is firmly in its bull phase, citing a “massive cup and handle” pattern on the BTC/XAU chart that could lead to a 446% increase and making $300,000 “increasingly likely” given historical outperformance against gold.

Analyst AlphaBTC highlights that holding the $112,000 level is crucial for bulls, with a decisive move above the $114,000 resistance zone, where significant ask orders exist, being necessary to confirm the end of the recent correction and signal a breakout towards $140,000.

Despite a recent 13% drawdown from its intra-day high of $124,500, several analysts are projecting a significant rally for Bitcoin (BTC), with some setting price targets as high as $300,000. These predictions hinge on Bitcoin’s historical correlation with gold and the emergence of bullish technical patterns, suggesting the cryptocurrency’s bull market is far from over.

Gold Correlation and Market Timing

Analyst Milk Road Macro highlighted a historical trend where Bitcoin tends to follow gold’s price movements with a three to four-month delay. Gold’s breakout to the upside in January, after forming a rising wedge pattern, is seen as a precursor for Bitcoin’s potential “last-minute spike” through October and November.

The analysis suggests that while gold saw a roughly 10% gain from its breakout, Bitcoin has historically outperformed these percentage returns by 5-10x. This could translate to potential upside gains for Bitcoin in the 50% to 100% range, equating to price targets between $160,000 and $220,000.

Technical Indicators Point to Further Upside

Dan Tapiero, CEO of 50TFunds, echoed bullish sentiment, stating that Bitcoin’s bull market has “not started yet.” He pointed to a “massive cup and handle” pattern on the BTC/XAU (Bitcoin to Gold) weekly chart.

A decisive break above the 37 XAU neckline could propel the BTC/XAU pair by 446% towards a measured target of 160 XAU, signaling a major price breakout for Bitcoin in the coming months. Crypto investor Zynx further supported this, suggesting that for Bitcoin to equal its all-time high in gold, it would need to rise above $150,000, making $300,000 “increasingly likely” given historical outperformance.

Separately, CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan also maintains that Bitcoin remains firmly within its bull market phase, based on various on-chain metrics.

Key Resistance Levels for a Continued Rally

Following its recent dip, Bitcoin reclaimed the $112,000 level, hitting an intra-day high of $112,293 on Monday. Analyst AlphaBTC noted that holding this $112,000 level is crucial for bulls to push the price higher.

The next significant level of interest is $114,000. Data indicates over $612 million in ask orders between $112,350 and $114,000. A decisive move above this resistance zone could signal the end of the recent correction and confirm a breakout towards $140,000 in the months ahead.

Outlook

Despite recent price volatility, the overarching sentiment among several analysts points to continued bullish momentum for Bitcoin. Technical patterns, historical correlations with gold, and on-chain data collectively suggest that significant price discovery and new all-time highs could be on the horizon, with key resistance levels needing to be overcome for the rally to fully materialize.