Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Independent analyst Colin Talks Crypto suggests that Bitcoin’s market cycles may follow a remarkably consistent rhythm, identifying a near-uniform 35-month span from bear-market lows to bull-market peaks. This observation, if it holds true, indicates that the cryptocurrency’s next potential cycle top could occur around October 2025.
Analyst’s Methodology
Colin revisited historical cycle lengths after encountering conflicting charts, testing two distinct methods for dating past bottoms. His “Measure A” identified cycle lengths of 25, 28, and 35 months for the first three cycles, respectively. In contrast, “Measure B” yielded more consistent durations of 37, 35, and 35 months.
The analyst favors Measure B due to its greater consistency, although he notes two caveats. The first cycle’s 37-month reading relies on dating the 2010 low as its start, which is an unconventional approach. Additionally, the second cycle featured a double bottom, meaning its length could be either 28 or 35 months depending on the chosen trough. Regardless, the third cycle unambiguously clocked 35 months, reinforcing the observed pattern.
Implications for the Current Cycle
Applying this 35-month template to the current cycle, which began from the November 2022 bear-market low, would place the 35th month in October 2025. It is important to note that this model predicts only timing, not specific price targets. Colin also emphasizes the concept of diminishing returns, suggesting that each successive cycle’s percentage gain tends to be smaller than the last.
Why the Timing Resonates
Bitcoin’s market cycles are frequently discussed in relation to halving events, global liquidity trends, and broader macroeconomic policies. Colin’s bottom-to-top timing model offers an alternative perspective by focusing purely on observed market behavior. A recurring 35-month cadence suggests that investor psychology and capital flows may settle into a predictable rhythm, allowing sufficient time for disbelief to transition into euphoria before excesses build.
Potential Disruptions
While history often rhymes, it rarely repeats precisely, and this model is subject to various external factors. Exogenous shocks, such as significant policy shifts, economic recessions, major institutional ETF flows, or critical security events, could potentially truncate or extend these cycles. Even if October 2025 proves to be a pivotal period, the “top” could manifest as a range of highs over time rather than a single peak.
Using the Model Wisely
For long-term participants, a date-based framework like this can serve as a useful guide for staging entries and de-risking strategies. It can also help investors avoid the common pitfall of chasing parabolic moves late in a cycle. However, for active traders, this model is primarily a context tool rather than a direct signal.
Traders should continue to rely on other critical metrics such as market breadth, funding rates, options skew, and on-chain distribution data for precise timing. If Bitcoin’s observed bottom-to-top rhythm continues to hold near 35 months, the window for a cycle climax is projected to open in Q4 2025. Investors should anticipate diminishing percentage gains and potentially wider price swings as this period approaches, always remembering that models offer guidance, not guarantees.
