Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin (BTC) closed September with a 5.35% gain, shaking off a late-month correction and setting the stage for a potentially bullish October, historically dubbed “Pumptober” by on-chain analysts like Lookonchain. Technical analysis and on-chain data suggest that the cryptocurrency is not yet “overheated,” with significant resistance levels at $122,000 and $138,000 serving as key targets for a potential rally.
Technical Indicators Point to Upside
Analysts are observing a classic double bottom setup on Bitcoin’s daily chart. This bullish reversal pattern, characterized by two troughs near $113,000 and a neckline resistance around $117,300, projects a technical target of approximately $127,500 if bulls can decisively push the price above the neckline.
Further supporting the bullish outlook, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned higher from neutral territory, indicating a regaining of momentum among buyers. A move past the $118,000–$119,000 zone could trigger a cascade of short liquidations, validating the breakout and increasing the probability of reaching the double-bottom target.
Beyond the double bottom, Bitcoin is also trading within a large symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. This structure, formed by converging trendlines, often precedes a sharp breakout as price compresses. The height of this triangle projects an ambitious target near $137,000, aligning closely with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level around $134,700.
On-Chain Data Suggests Room to Run
On-chain data reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s rally may have further room to extend before short-term traders become overextended. The cryptocurrency’s Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model, according to Glassnode data, places the average recent buy price at approximately $102,900.
This model identifies $122,000 as the first significant “heated zone” and $138,000 as an “overheated zone” that has historically marked cycle peaks. These levels are crucial thresholds for monitoring the sustainability of any potential “Pumptober” rally.
Outlook for October
Both technical chart patterns and on-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin could see substantial price movements in October. The identified resistance levels of $122,000 and $138,000 will be critical tests for the cryptocurrency as it attempts to build on its September gains.