Finance

Bitcoin’s “Pumptober” Potential: Will BTC Surge Past $120K After September Gains?

Bitcoin gained 5.35% in Sept. Analysts see upside with targets at $122,000 and $138,000 this “Pumptober.”

October 1, 2025, 3:59 PM

Gold Bitcoin coin on a shimmering, reflective background.

The gleaming gold Bitcoin contrasts beautifully against the shimmering background, symbolizing the digital currency's value. By Miami Daily Life / MiamiDaily.Life.

Executive Summary

Bitcoin (BTC) closed September with a 5.35% gain, historically setting the stage for a potentially bullish October, dubbed “Pumptober.”

Technical analysis shows a double bottom setup targeting $127,500 and a symmetrical triangle pattern projecting a target near $137,000, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating regaining momentum.

On-chain data suggests Bitcoin is not yet “overheated,” with significant resistance levels identified at $122,000 (heated zone) and $138,000 (overheated zone/historical cycle peak) as critical tests for a rally.

The Story So Far

Bitcoin’s potential “Pumptober” rally in October is anticipated due to its historical tendency for gains in this month, coupled with current bullish technical indicators like a double bottom setup and a symmetrical triangle pattern. Furthermore, on-chain data suggests the cryptocurrency is not yet “overheated,” indicating room for price appreciation before reaching significant resistance levels.

Why This Matters

Bitcoin’s September gains and current technical and on-chain indicators suggest a strong potential for a bullish “Pumptober,” with analysts eyeing significant upside targets ranging from $127,500 to $137,000. This outlook implies that the cryptocurrency is not yet “overheated,” indicating potential for further growth before reaching critical resistance levels at $122,000 and $138,000, which will be key tests for the sustainability of any rally.

Who Thinks What?

Technical analysts observing daily chart patterns anticipate Bitcoin’s price to target approximately $127,500 based on a double bottom setup and potentially near $137,000 from a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating a regaining of momentum among buyers.

On-chain analysts, using models like the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, suggest Bitcoin is not yet “overheated” and has room for its rally to extend, identifying $122,000 as a significant “heated zone” and $138,000 as an “overheated zone” historically linked to cycle peaks.

Bitcoin (BTC) closed September with a 5.35% gain, shaking off a late-month correction and setting the stage for a potentially bullish October, historically dubbed “Pumptober” by on-chain analysts like Lookonchain. Technical analysis and on-chain data suggest that the cryptocurrency is not yet “overheated,” with significant resistance levels at $122,000 and $138,000 serving as key targets for a potential rally.

Technical Indicators Point to Upside

Analysts are observing a classic double bottom setup on Bitcoin’s daily chart. This bullish reversal pattern, characterized by two troughs near $113,000 and a neckline resistance around $117,300, projects a technical target of approximately $127,500 if bulls can decisively push the price above the neckline.

Further supporting the bullish outlook, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned higher from neutral territory, indicating a regaining of momentum among buyers. A move past the $118,000–$119,000 zone could trigger a cascade of short liquidations, validating the breakout and increasing the probability of reaching the double-bottom target.

Beyond the double bottom, Bitcoin is also trading within a large symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. This structure, formed by converging trendlines, often precedes a sharp breakout as price compresses. The height of this triangle projects an ambitious target near $137,000, aligning closely with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level around $134,700.

On-Chain Data Suggests Room to Run

On-chain data reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s rally may have further room to extend before short-term traders become overextended. The cryptocurrency’s Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model, according to Glassnode data, places the average recent buy price at approximately $102,900.

This model identifies $122,000 as the first significant “heated zone” and $138,000 as an “overheated zone” that has historically marked cycle peaks. These levels are crucial thresholds for monitoring the sustainability of any potential “Pumptober” rally.

Outlook for October

Both technical chart patterns and on-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin could see substantial price movements in October. The identified resistance levels of $122,000 and $138,000 will be critical tests for the cryptocurrency as it attempts to build on its September gains.