Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin experienced a significant downturn early Friday, trading around $106,953, marking an 11% drop over the past week and nearly 8% over the last month. The decline was largely attributed to uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China and growing concerns over U.S. regional banking stability, leading analysts to identify the critical $103,000 price level as a key support to monitor.
Market Indicators Signal Weakness
The recent price fall has prompted short-term Bitcoin holders, defined as wallets holding BTC for less than 155 days, to sell their assets. These holders, who acquired Bitcoin around the $113,000 mark, have contributed to increased selling pressure as the “realized price” support level broke after multiple tests.
Further indicating weakened demand, particularly in the U.S., the “Coinbase premium” has turned negative. This metric, which typically shows Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase slightly higher than on international exchanges like Binance, now suggests U.S. traders are either selling off or that demand for BTC has significantly diminished.
Analyst Outlook and Critical Support Levels
CryptoQuant analyst JA_Maartun emphasized the importance of the $103,000 level, noting it is approximately 10% below the short-term holders’ realized price and has historically served as a crucial support during the 2025 bull run. “If price reaches this area, it will be an important level to monitor,” he stated.
Julio Morena, head of research at CryptoQuant, added that $100,000 represents the “traders’ on-chain realized price lower band,” which has acted as the final price support in the current bull cycle. He highlighted that Bitcoin remaining above $100,000 is also a significant psychological support level for the market.
Broader Economic Pressures
The cryptocurrency market is facing concurrent pressures from several fronts. President Trump, despite previously proposing 100% tariffs on China, indicated during a Fox Business interview that such a rate is “not sustainable” and confirmed plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month. Earlier tariff discussions had led to the liquidation of over $19 billion in crypto contracts.
Concerns over credit risk in U.S. regional banks are also contributing to market unease. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s recent comments, where he likened the bankruptcies of two auto firms and associated bad loans to “one cockroach” indicating “probably more,” have painted both equity and crypto markets red. The global crypto market capitalization has contracted by 2.8% to $3.66 trillion, reflecting this broader instability.
Liquidations and Institutional Retreat
The market downturn triggered a cascading wave of liquidations, wiping out over $1.2 billion in leveraged positions within 24 hours. Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of RedStone, pointed to a “synchronized institutional selling,” observing that none of the 12 Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows recently. Despite the significant volatility and testing of critical support levels, Kazmierczak noted that such fluctuations remain “within normal volatility” for the crypto market.
