Finance

Can a Government Shutdown Deal Revive the Nasdaq and S&P 500? What Investors Need to Know

Stocks rose Monday on shutdown deal hopes; Nasdaq up 1.4%, S&P 500 gained 0.7% while markets rebounded.

byAndres Castro

November 10, 2025, 3:33 PM

A low-angle shot of the Nasdaq building and other skyscrapers in Times Square, New York.

The Nasdaq building in Times Square, a top tourist attraction. By Lucky-photographer / Shutterstock.com.

Executive Summary

U.S. major stock indexes advanced on Monday, rebounding on optimism for a potential deal to end the prolonged government shutdown.

The Senate advanced a procedural measure toward ending the 41-day U.S. government shutdown, while President Donald Trump proposed a “dividend of at least $2000 a person” and suggested federal ACA funding go directly to the public.

Key company news included Metsera’s shares falling on a $10 billion acquisition by Pfizer, Tesla’s stock rising, and major U.S. airlines gaining on hopes of a shutdown resolution.

The Story So Far

The market’s recent rebound is largely driven by growing optimism that the prolonged 41-day U.S. government shutdown, which has negatively impacted consumer sentiment and various sectors like airlines, is nearing an end. This follows a challenging prior week for major indexes, partly influenced by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, while President Donald Trump’s recent statements regarding a potential “dividend” payment and changes to Affordable Care Act funding are also shaping investor sentiment.

Why This Matters

The market’s rebound, driven by optimism over a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown, signals that resolving this impasse is critical for restoring investor confidence and alleviating negative impacts on consumer sentiment and critical sectors like airlines. Furthermore, President Donald Trump’s proposed “tariff dividend” could inject direct funds into the economy, while his comments on reallocating Affordable Care Act funding suggest forthcoming policy shifts that could significantly reshape the healthcare industry.

Who Thinks What?

Investors expressed optimism about a potential deal to end the prolonged government shutdown, leading to a rebound in major U.S. stock indexes.

President Donald Trump proposed a “dividend of at least $2000 a person” for most Americans and suggested federal funding under the Affordable Care Act should go directly to the public, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating the dividend could materialize in various forms due to administration policies.

U.S. major stock indexes advanced on Monday, rebounding after snapping three-week winning streaks, as investors expressed optimism about a potential deal to end the prolonged government shutdown. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, benchmark S&P 500, and blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw gains following a down week for markets.

Market Performance and Economic Indicators

The Nasdaq rose 1.4%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by less than 0.1% during Monday’s trading. These gains followed a challenging prior week where the Nasdaq fell 3%, marking its worst weekly performance since President Trump introduced “Liberation Day” tariffs in early April. The S&P 500 and Dow also declined by 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, last week.

In other market movements, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, a key influencer of consumer loan rates, ticked higher to 4.11% from Friday’s 4.10%. Gold futures saw a rise of over 2% to $4,100 an ounce, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures slipped to $59.50 a barrel. Bitcoin was trading around $105,200, an increase from its weekend low, and the U.S. dollar index remained near flat at 99.66.

Government Shutdown and Policy Discussions

Optimism for an end to the record 41-day U.S. government shutdown grew after the Senate advanced a procedural measure late Sunday, allowing for votes on an agreement. Eight Democrats joined Republicans to reach the necessary 60-vote threshold to move the measure forward. The protracted shutdown has significantly impacted consumer sentiment, which a monthly University of Michigan survey reported fell to its lowest level since June 2022.

President Donald Trump stated in a Sunday morning message on Truth Social that a “dividend of at least $2000 a person” would be paid to “everyone,” though he noted “high income” earners would not receive the payment. Details regarding the timing and eligibility for this proposed tariff dividend were not immediately available. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in a Sunday interview with CBS, suggested the dividend could materialize “in lots of forms and lots of ways” as a result of the administration’s policies.

Separately, President Trump commented on federal funding under the Affordable Care Act, suggesting it should go directly to the public rather than to health insurers. This statement contributed to declines in shares of health insurers like Centene, HCA Holdings, and Molina Healthcare.

Company News and Stock Movers

Shares of Metsera (MTSR) fell 15% after the weight-loss drugmaker agreed to a $10 billion acquisition by Pfizer (PFE), following Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) withdrawal from a bidding war. U.S.-listed shares of Novo Nordisk were largely unchanged, while Pfizer stock reversed early gains to decline by approximately 2%. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) stock rose roughly 4%, recovering some ground after a 4% drop on Friday when investors approved a proposed pay package for CEO Elon Musk.

CoreWeave (CRWV) shares saw a modest gain of less than 1% ahead of its quarterly earnings report, scheduled for after the closing bell. Options pricing indicated that traders anticipated a potential 14% move in either direction for the stock by the end of the week. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) was a top performer, rising about 6.7% and leading both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq late Monday morning, despite an 11% decline last week.

U.S.-listed shares of Diageo (DEO) climbed 5% in early trading following the British spirits company’s announcement of Dave Lewis as its new chief executive, effective January 1. Lewis previously served as CEO of Tesco Group and as Chair of Haleon. Additionally, shares of major U.S. airlines, including Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), and American Airlines (AAL), each rose approximately 2% on hopes for an imminent end to the government shutdown, which had led to flight cancellations due to unpaid personnel.

In post-earnings trading, Monday.com (MNDY) shares sank 14% after the company provided a softer-than-expected revenue forecast for the current quarter, despite beating third-quarter analyst expectations. Conversely, Barrick Mining (B), Instacart operator Maplebear (CART), and Tyson Foods (TSN) saw their shares rise by about 5%, 1.5%, and 1.5%, respectively.

Outlook

Monday’s market rally was largely driven by renewed optimism surrounding a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown, providing a broad rebound for major indexes. Individual company performances, alongside ongoing discussions about potential economic policy shifts, also contributed to a dynamic trading session.