Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin has recovered above the $115,000 mark, rising 1.5% over the past 24 hours, with market momentum reportedly picking up due to activity in the derivatives market. This modest recovery comes as the cryptocurrency faces significant overhead resistance above $116,000, while several key support levels underpin its recent gains. Analysts are closely watching these levels to determine the sustainability of the upward trend.
Derivatives Drive Recovery Amid Weak Spot Demand
The cryptocurrency’s ability to stage a sustained recovery has been hampered by weak spot demand and a softening in Bitcoin ETF inflows. Consequently, market attention has shifted to derivatives markets, which, according to market intelligence firm Glassnode, “often set the tone when spot flows weaken.”
Glassnode’s latest Week Onchain report indicates that Bitcoin’s volume delta bias, which measures the imbalance between buying and selling pressure, recovered during the rebound from $108,000. This suggests seller exhaustion across major exchanges such as Binance and Bybit. Futures traders appear to have “helped absorb recent sell pressure,” with the evolution of derivatives positioning deemed critical for navigating the current low spot-liquidity environment.
Record Options Open Interest Signals Bullish Lean
Options open interest (OI) has reached an all-time high of $54.6 billion, marking a 26% increase from $43 billion on September 1. This surge reflects growing investor interest in the derivatives market, which historically has positively impacted BTC price movements.
Notably, the previous record high in options OI in mid-August coincided with Bitcoin’s ascent to new all-time highs above $124,500. Glassnode data also shows a clear bias toward call options over puts, indicating a market that “leans bullish while still managing downside risk.” Both futures basis and options positioning reflect a more balanced structure compared to past overheated phases, suggesting a market “advancing on firmer footing.”
Key Resistance and Support Levels to Watch
Bitcoin is currently trading around $115,400, having encountered resistance near the $116,000 level. For a sustained recovery, the BTC/USD pair must maintain its position above $115,000. A major supply zone stretches from $116,000 to $121,000, which Bitcoin will need to overcome to continue its uptrend toward all-time highs.
Conversely, bears are expected to defend the $116,000 level and attempt to push the price back down. Key support areas include $114,500, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) sits, and $112,200, which is embraced by the 100-day SMA. Another critical range extends from the local low of $107,200 (recorded on September 1) to the psychological $110,000 level.
Trader Sentiment and Liquidation Dynamics
The $4.3 billion options expiry on Friday is reportedly favoring bullish bets, potentially paving the way for a BTC rally toward $120,000 if the price remains above $113,000. Pseudonymous trader KillaXBT noted on X that Bitcoin is “now pushing to the previous monthly open” around $115,700, identifying it as a “crucial pivot point in terms of trend direction.”
Data from CoinGlass’s BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap shows liquidity clusters between $116,400 and $117,000. A break above this level could trigger a liquidation squeeze, forcing short sellers to close their positions and potentially driving prices further toward $120,000. On the downside, significant bid orders are concentrated around $114,700, with another major cluster between $113,500 and $112,000.
