Finance

Did Bitcoin’s “Red October” Signal a Correction or the Start of a Bear Market? What Analysts Say

Bitcoin had its first negative October in six years, with analysts viewing it as a mid-cycle correction.

November 3, 2025, 11:43 PM

A golden Bitcoin coin stands upright on a dark, reflective surface in front of a red, downward-trending financial graph.

A visualization of the Bitcoin price crashing, represented by a red, downward-trending chart. By Hi my name is Jacco / Shutterstock.com.

Executive Summary

Bitcoin experienced its first negative October in six years, leading to over $1.16 billion in long liquidations and a 1.4% drop in value within 24 hours.

Macroeconomic uncertainty, including Federal Reserve comments and significant U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows totaling $946 million last week, contributed to the recent market pressure.

Despite the downturn, analysts view “Red October” as a mid-cycle correction, expecting stabilization and cautious optimism for November, with historical data supporting a potential recovery and a move towards $120,000-$150,000 by late 2025.

The Story So Far

Bitcoin’s recent negative October, its first in six years, was primarily driven by macroeconomic policy uncertainty, including Federal Reserve comments on quantitative tightening, and significant institutional outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, all occurring within a complex global economic landscape that also saw an easing of geopolitical tensions following an agreement between President Trump and Xi Jinping.

Why This Matters

Bitcoin’s recent negative October, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and significant institutional outflows, indicates a period of short-term volatility and market adjustment for the cryptocurrency. However, this downturn is largely viewed by analysts as a healthy mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a bear market, underscoring Bitcoin’s underlying resilience. This sets the stage for a potential recovery and continued upward trajectory in the coming months, supported by historical trends and strong fundamental demand from institutional interest.

Who Thinks What?

Market speculation suggests that Bitcoin’s first negative October in six years could signal a deeper bear trend, a view potentially supported by significant U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows totaling $946 million last week.

Analysts, such as Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, view the “Red October” as a mid-cycle correction rather than a market conclusion, anticipating a period of stabilization and cautious optimism in November, with Bitcoin potentially reaching $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2025.

Bitcoin experienced its first negative October in six years, prompting market speculation on whether the downturn signals a deeper bear trend or a healthy mid-cycle correction. The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $107,000, following a significant sell-off that triggered over $1.16 billion in long liquidations earlier in November.

Market Performance and Macroeconomic Context

The recent dip saw Bitcoin’s value fall by 1.4% over 24 hours, contributing to a 2.2% drop in the total crypto market capitalization, which now stands at $3.64 trillion. This “Red October” occurred amidst a complex global economic landscape.

Macroeconomic policy uncertainty, including Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s comments on the end of quantitative tightening and tempered expectations for a December rate cut, has pressured risk assets. Bitcoin’s U.S.-session returns consequently cooled significantly, from 0.94% on October 29 to -4.56% over the past week, according to Velo data.

Geopolitical tensions have seen some easing, notably after the agreement between President Trump and Xi Jinping. This accord temporarily de-escalated the trade war, averting threatened 100% tariffs and establishing a delicate truce between the world’s two largest economies.

In a notable shift in institutional sentiment, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded substantial outflows. On October 30, these products saw a net outflow of $388.43 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone shedding $290.88 million—its largest single-day redemption since early August. Overall, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs experienced $946 million in withdrawals last week, according to CoinShares data.

Analyst Outlook and Historical Precedent

Despite the recent downturn, some analysts view the “Red October” as a potential precursor for Bitcoin’s next major bullish leg. Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, suggests that corrections like this often represent the midpoint of a broader cycle rather than its conclusion.

This optimistic interpretation is supported by historical data, which shows Bitcoin’s mean return for the third quarter remaining positive at 6.05%. Furthermore, November has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, boasting an average return of 42% over the past 12 years.

Lin anticipates a period of “stabilization and cautious optimism” for November. She expects Bitcoin to trade sideways early in the month as markets digest Federal Reserve commentary, with a decisive shift in tone potentially triggering a recovery. If Bitcoin continues to follow its typical post-halving pattern, a move toward $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2025 remains within reach, bolstered by strong underlying fundamentals from ETF flows to institutional custody solutions.

The bullish case is further reinforced by a projected “range-higher” trajectory for Bitcoin and robust on-chain data indicating that long-term structural demand remains intact despite recent short-term weakness.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin’s recent negative October performance, while significant, is largely viewed by analysts as a mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a bear market. Macroeconomic factors and institutional outflows contributed to the short-term pressure, but historical patterns and strong fundamentals suggest a potential recovery and continued upward trajectory for the cryptocurrency in the coming months.