Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Ethereum (ETH) is nearing a critical historical accumulation zone, with its price currently just 8% away from the $2,895 Accumulation Addresses Realized Price level, according to new on-chain data from CryptoQuant. This key metric represents the average cost basis of long-term investors and has historically signaled market bottoms, potentially attracting renewed strategic buying despite current market fear.
The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has struggled to regain bullish momentum, hovering near $3,150 after weeks of consistent selling pressure. However, its proximity to the $2,895 level suggests it could be entering the final stages of the current correction, a zone historically associated with significant long-term holder activity and subsequent market recoveries.
Long-Term Holders’ Accumulation
According to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, the $2,895 level signifies the average cost basis for long-term Ethereum accumulators—investors known for patiently accumulating assets across multiple market cycles. These investors typically buy during periods of heightened fear, establishing a robust foundation for future price rallies.
The CryptoQuant report notes that historically, Ethereum has only dipped below this key level once, during what it identifies as the April 2025 Trump tax-tariff crisis. This period saw the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index surge to 629 points, surpassing even the COVID-19 pandemic peak. Despite the widespread panic, long-term holders aggressively accumulated approximately 17 million ETH, raising their total balance from 10 million to over 27 million ETH.
This historical pattern underscores the conviction of Ethereum’s most dedicated investors, who consistently view fear-driven sell-offs as strategic opportunities. If ETH were to decline another 8% to reach this cost basis, it would enter one of its strongest long-term accumulation zones, signaling both value and resilience.
Current Market Position and Technical Outlook
Ethereum’s weekly chart indicates that the asset is holding above a key structural support zone near $3,000, despite recent downside pressure. The price briefly dipped below this level last week but quickly recovered, establishing a potential short-term base around the 200-week moving average, a historically significant line for major market bottoms.
Currently trading around $3,190, ETH is attempting to maintain stability within this critical range. The 50-week moving average, positioned slightly above at $3,500, acts as immediate resistance. A decisive break above $3,500 would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a loss of the $3,000 support could trigger a deeper correction towards the $2,800–$2,900 range, aligning with the Accumulation Realized Price highlighted by CryptoQuant analysts.
Key Takeaways
Despite short-term fearful sentiment, Ethereum’s approach to a historically significant accumulation level suggests a potential turning point. The confluence of technical support and on-chain data indicates that current price levels are being closely monitored by long-term investors and institutional accumulators, setting the stage for a possible market rebound.
