Finance

Ethereum’s $4,000 Crossroads: Can ETH Bulls Regain Momentum Amidst Bearish Signals?

Ethereum struggles to hold $4,000 amid low demand and ETF outflows, with analysts eyeing key support levels.

byAndres Castro

October 30, 2025, 12:07 PM

A bear figurine, an Ethereum coin, and a declining financial chart symbolize a bear market.

A bear and an Ethereum coin symbolize a crypto bear market. By MDL.

Executive Summary

Ethereum is struggling to maintain the $4,000 price level, driven by bearish indicators like low futures demand, consistent spot ETF outflows, and declining network activity and fees.

Analysts warn of a potential drop to $3,500-$3,800 if the $4,000 support is not reclaimed, with some suggesting a healthy pullback could extend to $3,300.

For a bullish recovery and a “strong Q4,” Ether needs to reclaim $4,000 and push above the 50-day Simple Moving Average at $4,200 to target higher resistance levels.

The Story So Far

Ethereum’s struggle to maintain the $4,000 price level is attributed to a lack of sustained bullish sentiment, evidenced by low futures demand and persistent outflows from US-based spot ETFs, alongside a broader decline in network activity, marked by reduced transaction fees and fewer active addresses on its base layer.

Why This Matters

Ethereum’s persistent struggle to hold the $4,000 price level, driven by low futures demand, consistent spot ETF outflows, and declining network activity, signals a significant lack of bullish momentum. This ongoing weakness raises concerns about further price depreciation, with analysts warning of potential drops to $3,500 or even $3,300 if critical support is not reclaimed, thereby challenging the feasibility of higher price targets for the current market cycle unless a decisive shift in sentiment and price action occurs above key resistance levels.

Who Thinks What?

Bearish market indicators, including low futures demand, consistent outflows from US-based Ethereum spot ETFs, and declining network activity and fees, suggest a lack of sustained bullish sentiment and cast doubt on Ethereum’s recovery prospects.

Analyst Ted Pillows warns that if the $4,000 support level is not reclaimed, Ethereum could drop to $3,800, with a potential sell-off towards the $3,500-$3,700 demand zone or even $3,354.

Conversely, analysts like FibonacciTrading and Cactus suggest that a dip towards $3,300 could still be a healthy pullback within an uptrend, and Ether’s upside remains on track for a “strong Q4” if the $3,800-$4,200 support region is defended and the price pushes above the 50-day Simple Moving Average at $4,200.

Ethereum (ETH) has struggled to maintain the $4,000 price level over the past two weeks, consolidating around this mark after a flash crash below $3,500 on October 11. This inability to hold key support, coupled with bearish indicators such as low futures demand and weak spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, has cast doubt on the cryptocurrency’s recovery prospects.

Bearish Market Indicators Persist

Despite a recent recovery to $4,250, Ether has not seen a sustained return of bullish sentiment among traders. Ether futures are currently trading at only a 5% premium relative to spot markets, which indicates low demand from buyers using leverage. This premium typically ranges between 5% and 10% in neutral market conditions.

Adding to the bearish outlook are consistent outflows from US-based Ethereum spot ETFs, a trend that has dominated since mid-October. Even significant net inflows of $380 million into ETFs on Monday and Tuesday failed to generate any substantial bullish momentum, leading traders to question the feasibility of a $10,000 ETH price target for the current cycle.

Declining Network Activity and Fees

The struggle to hold $4,000 can also be attributed to a decline in Ethereum network fees, a trend observed across the broader cryptocurrency market. Ethereum chain fees amounted to $5 million over the past seven days, marking a 16% decrease from the previous week.

Similarly, the number of active addresses on Ethereum’s base layer dropped by 4% during the same period. This reduction in on-chain demand suggests a broader lack of engagement within the Ethereum ecosystem, further pressuring the asset’s price.

Analyst Outlook and Price Targets

Analysts are closely watching Ether’s price action, with some warning of a potential drop to $3,500 if the $4,000 support level is not reclaimed soon. Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data show Ether printing a third consecutive red candlestick on the daily chart, with several recovery attempts rejected at the $4,000 resistance.

Analyst Ted Pillows noted on X that Ether lost its $4,000 support again, despite a 0.25% Fed rate cut, the end of quantitative tightening, and US-China trade talks. Pillows indicated that the next line of defense for ETH is $3,800, and a loss of this level could trigger a sell-off towards the $3,500-$3,700 demand zone, potentially reaching the $3,354 low observed on August 3.

Conversely, reclaiming $4,000 would empower bulls to target resistance levels at $4,200 and $4,500, aiming to eventually return to all-time highs above $5,000. Analyst FibonacciTrading suggested that a dip towards $3,300 could still be considered a healthy pullback within an uptrend, provided it is held by the EMA cloud.

Pseudonymous analyst Cactus maintains that Ether’s upside remains on track for a “strong Q4” if bulls can defend the $3,800-$4,200 support region. To signal strength and confirm the start of the next upward move, bulls must push the price above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,200.

Key Takeaways

Ethereum’s inability to decisively hold the $4,000 mark is primarily driven by a lack of sustained bullish sentiment, evidenced by low futures demand, persistent ETF outflows, and declining network activity. While analysts point to critical support levels and potential downside targets, a reclaim of $4,000 could shift the momentum back in favor of the bulls, setting the stage for further gains.