Finance

Ethereum’s November Turnaround: Will Historical Gains Ignite a Q4 Surge?

Ethereum may rebound in November, with historical data suggesting double-digit gains could follow October’s losses.

byAndres Castro

October 25, 2025, 9:31 AM

Close-up of several shiny, silver Ethereum cryptocurrency coins.

Digital representations of wealth, these Ethereum coins symbolize the evolving landscape of finance. By MDL.

Executive Summary

After a challenging October, Ethereum (ETH) is poised for a potential turnaround in November, with historical data suggesting the month could deliver double-digit gains and help break the $4,000 resistance.

Ethereum’s historical data for November shows a balanced record of gains and losses, but positive Novembers typically resulted in significant double-digit increases, leading to an average return of 6.93%.

With Ethereum’s Q2 and Q3 2025 both closing positively (36.5% and 66.7% respectively), historical patterns indicate a strong fourth quarter, potentially leading to an average 50% increase or even a doubling of its value by year-end.

The Story So Far

Ethereum is poised for a potential November rebound after a challenging October that saw a nearly 5% decline, with historical data indicating that positive Novembers often deliver significant double-digit gains. This outlook is further strengthened by 2025’s strong positive returns in both Q2 and Q3, a pattern that historically precedes a robust Q4 performance for the cryptocurrency.

Why This Matters

Ethereum is poised for a potential turnaround in November, with historical data suggesting the cryptocurrency could see double-digit gains and break past the $4,000 resistance level. This positive November, combined with strong Q2 and Q3 performances in 2025—a pattern historically indicative of a robust year-end—suggests a significant fourth-quarter rally, potentially leading to a 50% or even 100% increase in value by the close of the year.

Who Thinks What?

Analysts suggest Ethereum is poised for significant gains by year-end 2025, based on historical patterns where positive Q2 and Q3 performance (as seen in 2025) typically leads to strong Q4 returns, potentially increasing its value by 50% or even doubling it.

Other analysis indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook for November, noting that while historical performance for the month is balanced, past “green” Novembers have often delivered substantial double-digit gains.

Despite a challenging October, there’s a view that the remaining two months of the year offer ample opportunity for a significant price recovery and a strong finish to 2025.

Ethereum (ETH) is poised for a potential turnaround in November after a challenging October, which saw the cryptocurrency lose nearly 5% of its value and struggle to maintain the psychological $4,000 level. Historical data suggests November could be a pivotal month, with past “green” Novembers often delivering double-digit gains, potentially setting the stage for a strong close to the fourth quarter of 2025.

November’s Historical Performance

Analysis of Ethereum’s historical price data indicates a balanced record for November, with an equal number of years ending in gains and losses over the past decade. However, the years with positive returns typically saw significant double-digit increases, outweighing the losses from “red” Novembers.

This trend has resulted in an average November return of 6.93% and a positive median return of 1.42%. While no clear trend definitively points to either a bullish or bearish outcome, a positive November could see Ethereum break past the $4,000 resistance with substantial momentum.

Fourth Quarter Potential

Despite mixed historical performance for the final quarter of the year, a notable pattern emerges when Q2 and Q3 have both closed in the green. For 2025, Ethereum recorded an average positive return of 36.5% in Q2 and a robust 66.7% return in Q3, marking its highest quarterly gain so far.

Historically, only one year (2016) has seen Q4 close in the red after both Q2 and Q3 ended positively. This trend held true in 2017, 2020, and 2021. The current year, 2025, marks the first time in four years that Ethereum has concluded both Q2 and Q3 with gains.

Outlook for Year-End

If these historical patterns hold, Ethereum could experience an average increase of 50% or even double its value, similar to its performance in 2017 and 2020, before the year concludes. While October has seen a 4.83% decline, the remaining two months of the year offer ample opportunity for a significant price recovery and a strong finish to 2025.