Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Ethereum (ETH) is currently navigating a period of uncertainty, with conflicting price predictions emerging as the broader cryptocurrency market experiences a downturn, marked by Bitcoin’s recent slump. Despite a modest 1.69% gain today, pushing its price to $3,473.2 from an open of $3,415.8, market sentiment remains tense regarding the second-largest crypto asset’s immediate future.
Conflicting Market Signals
Prediction markets offer a divided outlook on Ethereum’s trajectory. On Myriad, a prediction platform, users have placed 65% odds on ETH reaching $4,000 before a potential drop to $2,500. Conversely, a separate market on Myriad indicates a 79.1% chance that ETH will not hit $5,000 by the end of 2025, reflecting the significant loss of market momentum in recent months.
This market sentiment aligns with broader trends, including Bitcoin’s dominance surging to 60%, a phenomenon often described as a “Bitcoin Season” that can suppress altcoin performance. The overall Fear & Greed Index, a measure of market sentiment, currently sits at 24, firmly in “fear” territory, down from 38 just a month prior. Traders frequently seek refuge in more stable assets like Bitcoin or traditional commodities during such volatile periods.
Technical Indicators Point Bearish
Technical analysis suggests a challenging path ahead for Ethereum. The asset has been trending lower since failing to maintain levels above $3,800 in late October. It is currently testing a critical support zone around $3,400, positioned between a descending resistance trendline originating from its October highs of $4,800 and an ascending support trendline that largely held throughout 2025.
Several key indicators reinforce a bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ETH is at 41.46, indicating dominant selling pressure with room for further decline before becoming oversold. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 32.66 confirms a strong bearish trend is in place. While the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) still show a “golden cross” (50-day above 200-day) — a typically bullish long-term setup — the current price of ETH trades below both EMAs, signaling short-term weakness and hinting at a potential “death cross” if the gap between them closes.
Further bearish signals come from the Squeeze Momentum Indicator, which shows a “bearish impulse” releasing downward, a pattern that preceded Bitcoin’s recent drop from $108,000 to below $102,000. Additionally, the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVP) indicates that the price is trading below the point of control, implying sellers are in command and that traders who bought at higher prices may become motivated sellers.
Underlying Bullish Catalysts
Despite the prevailing bearish technicals, some fundamental factors offer a bullish counter-narrative. In October, whales accumulated 1.64 million ETH, valued at approximately $6.4 billion, even as the asset experienced a 7% monthly price drop. This suggests strategic long-term positioning by significant holders.
Moreover, the anticipated Fusaka upgrade for Ethereum, scheduled for December 3, is expected to substantially enhance the network’s scalability. For a rally towards $4,000 to materialize, ETH would need to decisively break through the descending resistance trendline, which lies between $3,600 and $3,800. The existing “golden cross” EMA setup could provide a foundation for such a rally, contingent on improved macro conditions, such as dovish signals from the Federal Reserve or a period of Bitcoin consolidation allowing for an altcoin resurgence.
Analyst’s Outlook
Market analysis suggests that the alignment of multiple independent bearish indicators—including ADX, RSI, Squeeze Momentum, and VPVP—lends significant weight to the downside scenario. The article’s author posits that the 79.1% odds on Myriad of ETH not reaching $5,000 in 2025 likely represent a more realistic assessment.
The most probable path, according to this analysis, involves a test and subsequent break of the $3,400 support level in the coming days. This could lead to a decline towards the $2,800-$2,500 range, where the ascending support trendline and the 200-day EMA might offer a potential floor. Such a move would represent a 19-28% drop, a significant but not unprecedented correction in the crypto market. The whale accumulation observed in October is viewed as strategic positioning for a recovery in Q1 2026, after a period of market clearing.
