Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, with a “triple bottom” pattern forming on its 4-hour chart around the $3,750–$3,800 support level. This setup, appearing after a 6.50% decline in October, hints at a possible breakout towards $4,280 by early November, representing a 10% increase from current levels.
Technical Reversal Signals
As of Thursday, Ether’s 4-hour chart indicates a triple bottom, a pattern where prices repeatedly test and fail to break below the same support level. For ETH, this critical support lies between $3,750 and $3,800, where buying interest has consistently prevented further declines.
Each successive “bottom” within the pattern suggests a weakening of selling pressure and a gradual build-up of buying momentum. Ethereum now faces a significant hurdle at its neckline resistance, positioned near $3,950–$4,000, an area that also converges with the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA).
A decisive break above this neckline would confirm the triple bottom pattern, potentially propelling ETH towards its price target of approximately $4,280. This 10% surge could materialize by late October or early November. Trading volumes have typically declined during the pattern’s formation, with a noticeable spike in buying volume expected to validate the breakout.
This bullish reversal aligns with analysis from trader Kamran Asghar, though he identifies the $4,800-$5,000 area as a primary resistance zone.
Whale Accumulation Trends
On-chain data from Glassnode reveals a significant shift in Ethereum’s ownership structure amidst the recent price downturn. Wallets classified as “mega whales,” holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH, have been accumulating at their fastest pace in years, now controlling close to 28 million ETH.
Conversely, smaller whales, holding 1,000–10,000 ETH, have seen their balances sharply decrease, particularly over the past month during Ether’s price correction. This trend suggests that larger investors have been absorbing supply from mid-sized holders who may have sold into the dip, or that some mid-sized holders increased their positions, moving into the larger whale cohort.
Outlook
Ethereum is exhibiting a combination of technical and on-chain indicators pointing towards a potential recovery in the near term. The triple bottom pattern, coupled with aggressive accumulation by “mega whales,” suggests underlying strength and renewed buying interest, despite the recent price volatility in October.
