Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has seen a significant rebound of over 15% in the past two weeks, recovering from a two-month low of $3,435. Multiple technical indicators and analyst observations suggest that ETH may extend its recovery, with targets potentially reaching $4,500 by the end of October and even exceeding $5,200 to establish a new record high by November.
Technical Indicators Point to Upside
The recent rebound appears to be forming within a “bull flag” pattern, a technical structure often signaling the continuation of an uptrend after a period of consolidation. This flag is depicted as a descending parallel channel, which developed following a sharp rally from April lows near $2,500 to an August high of $4,950.
The latest bounce from the channel’s lower boundary near $3,500 coincides with strong support from the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Historically, this moving average has attracted dip buyers during bull markets, reinforcing its significance as a support level.
Should the recovery momentum sustain, Ether could target a breakout towards the channel’s upper boundary, situated around the $4,450-$4,500 area, within October. This interim upside target aligns with analyst FOUR’s “double bottom” technical setup, which forecasts ETH hitting neckline resistance at $4,750 in the coming days.
Trader Luca further anticipates a rally towards $4,500, citing Ether’s sustained position above its “weekly bull market support band.” A breakout above this key area could propel the price toward a bull flag target above $5,200, potentially setting a new all-time high by November.
Conversely, a breakdown below the support confluence—specifically the bull flag’s lower boundary and the 200-day EMA support around $3,550—could invalidate the bullish pattern. Such a scenario would expose Ether to deeper retracements, potentially towards the $3,000-$3,200 range.
MVRV Bands Reinforce Bullish Outlook
Further supporting the optimistic outlook, Ethereum’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands show that its recent pullback stabilized near the mean band around $3,900. This level has historically served as a springboard for new rallies, indicating a healthy market correction rather than exhaustion.
Past instances in early 2021, mid-2023, and early 2024 demonstrate that each bounce off this midpoint led to an advance towards the +1σ (standard deviation) band, currently hovering near $5,000. This historical pattern suggests that Ether remains in a “healthy correction” phase of its ongoing bull cycle.
If the mean level continues to hold as robust support, a push towards the $4,500–$5,000 zone by late October appears statistically probable based on this historical performance.
Outlook
Overall, Ether’s recent price action, combined with supportive technical indicators like the bull flag pattern and historical MVRV band performance, paints a picture of potential continued recovery. While inherent market risks remain, the prevailing sentiment among analysts suggests a strong possibility of Ether reclaiming $4,500 and potentially reaching new all-time highs in the coming weeks.
