Finance

Fidelity: 8.3 Million Bitcoin Could Vanish by 2032—Here’s Why It Matters for Bitcoin’s Price

Fidelity: 8.3M Bitcoin (42%) could become illiquid by 2032 due to long-term holders & companies accumulating.

September 16, 2025, 9:44 AM

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Executive Summary

Fidelity projects 8.3 million Bitcoin (42% of current circulating supply) could become “illiquid” by Q2 2032 due to sustained accumulation by long-term holders and publicly traded companies.

“Illiquid” supply is defined as Bitcoin held by entities whose holdings have consistently increased, specifically long-term holders (7+ years) and 105 publicly traded companies holding at least 1,000 BTC.

While this accumulation suggests a long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin’s price, recent data shows whales have sold nearly $12.7 billion worth of BTC in the past 30 days, highlighting ongoing market volatility.

The Story So Far

Fidelity projects that a significant portion of Bitcoin will become “illiquid” by 2032 due to sustained accumulation by two key groups: long-term holders who have not moved their Bitcoin for at least seven years, and publicly traded companies holding substantial amounts, a trend expected to reduce market supply and potentially influence future price dynamics.

Why This Matters

Fidelity’s projection that 42% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply could become illiquid by 2032 due to long-term accumulation signals a potential supply squeeze that could significantly influence future price appreciation. However, this bullish long-term outlook is tempered by the cryptocurrency’s inherent volatility, as recent large-scale whale selling demonstrates that market dynamics remain complex and subject to significant fluctuations despite reduced available supply.

Who Thinks What?

Fidelity projects that approximately 8.3 million Bitcoin will become “illiquid” by Q2 2032 due to sustained accumulation by long-term holders and publicly traded companies, a trend expected to positively influence Bitcoin’s price dynamics by reducing available supply.

The report implicitly suggests a counterpoint that despite long-term accumulation, the market remains volatile, as evidenced by recent large-scale selling by Bitcoin whales (nearly $12.7 billion in 30 days), which highlights the potential for price decreases should large holders decide to sell.

Fidelity, a prominent asset management firm, projects that approximately 8.3 million Bitcoin (BTC), representing 42% of its current circulating supply, could become “illiquid” by the second quarter of 2032. This forecast, outlined in a recent report, attributes the tightening supply to sustained accumulation by long-term holders and publicly traded companies, a trend that could positively influence Bitcoin’s price dynamics by reducing available supply on the open market.

Fidelity’s Illiquid Supply Projection

The asset manager defines “illiquid” supply as Bitcoin held by entities whose holdings have consistently increased over time. Specifically, their criteria require holdings to have ticked up each quarter or at least 90% of the time over the past four years. Based on current trends, Fidelity estimates that these combined groups could hold over six million Bitcoin by the end of 2025, accounting for more than 28% of Bitcoin’s total fixed supply of 21 million.

Looking further ahead, Fidelity predicts that 8.3 million BTC will be considered illiquid by Q2 2032. This projection assumes that the cohort of wallets holding Bitcoin for at least seven years will continue to increase their supply at the same rate observed over the last decade, without factoring in additional supply reductions from new publicly traded companies.

Key Cohorts Driving Illiquidity

The report identified two primary groups contributing to this illiquid supply: long-term Bitcoin holders and publicly traded companies holding at least 1,000 BTC. Long-term holders are defined as those who have not moved their Bitcoin from their wallets for at least seven years, a group that has shown no decrease in supply since 2016.

The second cohort, publicly traded companies, has also demonstrated strong conviction in their Bitcoin holdings, experiencing only a single quarter of supply decrease in Q2 2022. Currently, there are 105 publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin, collectively possessing over 969,000 BTC, which accounts for 4.61% of Bitcoin’s total supply, according to data from Bitbo.

Market Implications and Recent Dynamics

The accumulation by these groups suggests a long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin’s price due to reduced market availability. The report highlighted that the combined value of Bitcoin held by these two groups reached $628 billion at the end of the second quarter, based on an average price of $107,700, which is double the value from the previous year.

However, the report also implicitly raises questions about market volatility should large holders decide to sell. Recent data indicates that Bitcoin whales have collectively sold nearly $12.7 billion worth of BTC in the past 30 days, marking the largest sell-off since mid-2022. Concurrently, Bitcoin’s price has seen a 2% decrease over the same 30-day period, according to CoinGecko.

Outlook

Fidelity’s analysis underscores a significant trend of Bitcoin moving into long-term, illiquid hands, potentially creating a supply squeeze that could impact future price dynamics. While this long-term accumulation suggests underlying strength, recent large-scale selling by whales highlights the ongoing volatility and complex interplay of market forces in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.