Brent crude prices witnessed an increase of 15 cents to reach $75.37 per barrel, continuing an upward trend from the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also saw a rise, gaining 67 cents to settle at $71.41 per barrel by Tuesday morning. This follows the temporary market closure on Monday due to the U.S. Presidents’ Day holiday.
Market analysts attribute the price movements to supply expectations. The disruption at the Kropotkinskaya station in Russia’s Krasnodar region curtailed shipments of Kazakh oil, affecting major Western firms such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil. According to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, the Black Sea CPC Blend oil loading operations are set to proceed as planned for February.
Despite these disruptions, long-term price increases may be limited. The market is preparing for potential hikes in supply from OPEC+ and Russia in the coming months. There’s also uncertainty surrounding the demand outlook from China, as recent economic indicators have raised questions about projected growth.
Forecasts by BMI analysts suggest that Brent oil prices might average around $76 per barrel in 2025. This projection is a 5% decline from the anticipated average in 2024, influenced by oversupply, trade tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions. Meanwhile, a Russian media report indicated that OPEC+ isn’t currently planning to postpone the upcoming increase in oil supply set for April.
The geopolitical landscape continues to weigh heavily on the market. Ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace discussions are critical, with potential outcomes affecting oil supplies. Analyst Neil Crosby from Sparta Commodities emphasizes that the market remains cautious, particularly concerning the return of Russian oil to legitimate markets.
While a recent attack led to a brief rise in oil prices, broader market dynamics hint at potential stability or further fluctuation. Supply increases from major producers and geopolitical negotiations remain pivotal factors influencing future pricing.
