Unveiling Bitcoin’s Future: Can Diaman Partners’ $60,000-$80,000 Prediction Shape Your 2026 Strategy?

Diaman Partners, an investment firm, estimates that Bitcoin’s next market cycle bottom could fall within a range of $60,000 to $80,000 by 2026. This projection is based on Monte Carlo simulations and an analysis of the cryptocurrency’s 200-week moving average, offering a forward-looking perspective on potential support levels for the digital asset.

Bitcoin’s Cyclical History and Recent Deviations

Bitcoin has historically moved in approximately four-year cycles. While many investors previously believed Bitcoin would always maintain levels above its prior highs, a significant deviation occurred in 2022.

During that year, the price of Bitcoin dropped to $15,000 following the collapse of FTX, falling below the $20,000 threshold briefly touched in December 2017. This event challenged earlier assumptions about the asset’s floor.

Estimating the Next Cycle Bottom

While much market attention often focuses on predicting Bitcoin’s peak values, Diaman Partners’ research department aimed to estimate the potential minimum value in 2026. Many experts suggest Bitcoin’s cyclical phase might be evolving into a more “mature” period of steady growth.

However, Diaman Partners approaches this with a “skeptical engineering perspective,” positing that Bitcoin cycles will likely continue, albeit potentially with reduced intensity, for years to come.

The Role of the 200-Week Moving Average

Historically, the 200-week moving average has served as a strong support level during Bitcoin’s price declines, with 2022 being an exception where prices fell more than anticipated. To project where this average might stand by late 2026, Diaman Partners employed a Monte Carlo simulation.

This simulation accounts for decreasing returns and volatility, a necessary precaution given the observed reduction in Bitcoin’s volatility over time. The firm notes that Bitcoin’s returns are not purely exponential, as larger market capitalization requires more energy to move the asset.

Monte Carlo Simulation Insights

The simulation, which involved creating 1,000 random historical series, suggests a low probability of Bitcoin falling below $41,000 by December 2026. Specifically, there is only a 5% chance of this occurring.

Based on the 5th percentile of the simulation, the estimated target price for the end of the next “crypto winter” cycle is approximately $60,000. In a strong growth scenario, where Bitcoin’s price continues to rise before a potential fall in 2026, the support value could exceed $80,000.

Reverse Engineering Potential Peaks

Diaman Partners also explored a reverse engineering approach, starting with a hypothetical bottom of $80,000. Assuming a plausible drawdown of -69%, this analysis suggests that a price target of $260,000 at the peak of the next cycle “may not be so impossible.”

The firm notes that such a trend would align with patterns observed in previous cycles. It is important to remember that this study does not constitute investment advice.

In conclusion, Diaman Partners’ analysis, utilizing Monte Carlo simulations and the 200-week moving average, projects Bitcoin’s next cycle bottom to be between $60,000 and $80,000 by 2026, offering a data-driven perspective on the cryptocurrency’s future support levels amidst ongoing market cycles.