Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
The U.S. stock market is poised for a slight dip on Monday, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures indicating declines in pre-market trading, following a mixed close on Friday. Concurrently, Bitcoin has experienced a significant price drop to approximately $107,000, largely influenced by a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve and a broader shift in investor sentiment away from riskier assets.
U.S. Stock Market Futures Dip
As of Monday pre-market on November 16, 2025, S&P 500 futures fell 0.1 percent, and Nasdaq 100 futures were down by 0.1 percent. This follows Friday’s market performance where the S&P 500 declined by 3.38 points to 6,734.11, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 309.74 points to 47,147.48. The Nasdaq composite, however, saw a gain of 30.23 points, closing at 22,900.59.
Regulatory filings from Friday revealed that Wall Street’s largest hedge funds significantly reduced their exposure to “Magnificent Seven” stocks, including Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, during the third quarter. This capital was redirected towards application software, e-commerce, and payments companies, alongside reduced positions in healthcare and energy sectors.
This strategic shift marks a departure from the second quarter, when leading stock-picking firms exhibited greater bullishness on prominent technology names amid a boom in artificial intelligence valuations. These lofty valuations have since begun to moderate. Despite these adjustments, the broader market experienced gains in the third quarter, with the S&P 500 rising by nearly 8 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index increasing by about 9 percent.
Bitcoin Price Plunges Amid Fed Caution
Bitcoin’s price has fallen to around $107,000, struggling to maintain key support levels. Analysts, according to a TradingView report, caution that the cryptocurrency could decline further to as low as $88,000 if market sentiment does not improve.
The primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s recent slide is the Federal Reserve’s cautious posture following its latest interest rate decision. While the Fed implemented a rate cut last week and signaled an intention to conclude quantitative tightening by December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that a subsequent rate cut in December was not assured.
This statement rapidly dampened optimism across financial markets. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of another rate cut in December decreased from 90 percent to 63 percent, with chances for January falling to just 19.5 percent. This adjustment in expectations precipitated widespread selling across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Further contributing to market unease, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the “fear” zone at 35, reflecting persistent caution among traders. Institutional investors also appear to be retreating, with nearly $800 million withdrawn from Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last week.
Long-Term Holders and Global Tensions
Bitcoin’s decline has been exacerbated by long-term investors realizing profits. Coinglass data shows that holders sold over 100,000 BTC in October, adding to the downward pressure. This broke October’s typical “Uptober” bullish streak, with Bitcoin slipping 3.7 percent for the month.
Global economic tensions, including ongoing trade disputes between the U.S. and China, uncertainty surrounding oil prices, and geopolitical risks, have also driven many investors toward safer assets such as the U.S. dollar and gold.
Key Price Levels and Outlook
According to Coinglass, Bitcoin faces a risk of falling to $88,000 if it fails to sustain above the $113,000 resistance level, which represents the cost basis for short-term holders. The $88,000 mark aligns with Bitcoin’s realized price, historically a strong support during past corrections.
For November 2025, Bitcoin could continue to trade sideways between $107,500 and $123,000, influenced by uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic data and a potential government shutdown, as per a TradingView report. However, some analysts suggest a “Santa Rally” could emerge in December if the Fed proceeds with plans to end quantitative tightening and potentially cut rates again, which could reintroduce liquidity and optimism to the crypto market.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Bitcoin’s price premium on Coinbase, a key indicator of U.S. retail sentiment, turned negative in late October and early November. This negative premium, according to an Investing.com report, suggests reduced U.S. buying interest and increased selling pressure among retail investors.
Market Sentiment Summary
The current financial landscape reflects a cautious investor approach across both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. Central bank policy, evolving sector preferences, and global economic uncertainties are key factors shaping asset valuations and investor behavior in late 2025.
