Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin retested the $111,000 mark into Sunday’s weekly close, with analysts suggesting that a potential dip to $100,000 represents a “worst-case scenario” before a significant rally. This outlook is largely based on Fibonacci retracement analysis and historical price behavior observed since late 2024, identifying $100,000 as a critical bounce zone following recent fluctuations influenced by US macroeconomic data.
Recent Price Action and Technical Analysis
The BTC/USD pair recorded a gain of approximately 1% on the day, reaching local highs of $111,369. This movement saw bulls successfully preserve the $110,000 support level despite a recent dip that followed the release of new US macroeconomic data.
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe described the price action as “promising,” noting that Bitcoin established a new higher low and held the $110,000 support. He suggested that a break above $112,000 could ignite a further bull run.
Diverging Short-Term Outlooks
However, market participants hold varying views on Bitcoin’s immediate price trajectory. Popular trader Cipher X indicated that a failure to reclaim the $112,000 level could lead to new lows. Similarly, trader Crypto Tony stated that Bitcoin would either flip $113,000 to rally to new highs or reject the level and drop to $100,000.
Trader TurboBullCapital highlighted the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) as key levels to monitor, positioned at $115,035 and $101,760, respectively. TurboBullCapital added that if the $107,000 area is lost, the downside target would likely be the $101,000 level, which coincides with the 200-day SMA, presenting a “logical area to expect a bounce.”
The $100,000 “Worst-Case Scenario”
Analysts are pinpointing the $100,000 mark as a potential “worst-case scenario” for Bitcoin’s short-term decline. This assessment is supported by Fibonacci retracement levels, which suggest a maximum drop of 10% based on historical behavior since late last year.
Popular trader ZYN explained that Bitcoin typically bottoms at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, a pattern observed in Q3 2024 and Q2 2025. This level currently sits around $100,000, implying that a 10% drop could precede a significant 50% rally above $150,000.
An additional theory circulating among market participants suggests potential manipulation by market makers on exchange order books. This scenario posits that short sellers could be positioned for a giant short squeeze, driving the market to new all-time highs, echoing price action seen in late 2024.
As Bitcoin navigates critical support and resistance levels, the $100,000 mark remains a significant psychological and technical benchmark. While short-term outlooks diverge, technical analysis based on historical patterns suggests that any substantial dip could serve as a springboard for future gains.