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Finance

Will Bitcoin’s Dip to $100,000 Ignite a Bull Run? Analysts Weigh In

Bitcoin retested $111K. Analysts see $100K as “worst-case” before a rally, based on Fibonacci & past trends.

byAndres Castro

September 8, 2025, 10:47 AM

Executive Summary

Bitcoin retested $111,000, successfully preserving the $110,000 support level, with analysts suggesting a break above $112,000 could ignite a further bull run.

A potential dip to $100,000 is considered a “worst-case scenario” based on Fibonacci retracement and historical price behavior, representing a critical bounce zone.

This $100,000 level, coinciding with the 0.382 Fibonacci level, is projected to precede a significant 50% rally above $150,000 if reached.

The Story So Far

Bitcoin’s current retesting of the $111,000 level is occurring within a market where technical analysts widely anticipate a potential dip to $100,000 as a “worst-case scenario” bounce zone, an expectation largely based on Fibonacci retracement analysis and historical price behavior observed since late 2024, which suggests such a decline would likely precede a significant rally, possibly influenced by market maker actions or a short squeeze.

Why This Matters

Analysts suggest that while Bitcoin faces short-term volatility and potential dips, a drop to the $100,000 mark is widely considered a “worst-case scenario” that could precede a significant rally, potentially pushing prices above $150,000, based on historical Fibonacci patterns and technical support. This implies that any substantial near-term decline might be a strategic buying opportunity rather than a sign of a prolonged downturn, with market dynamics potentially setting up for a major short squeeze.

Who Thinks What?

Analysts, including Michaël van de Poppe and ZYN, suggest that a potential dip to $100,000 represents a “worst-case scenario” that would serve as a critical bounce zone before a significant rally above $150,000.

Conversely, traders like Cipher X and Crypto Tony indicate that a failure for Bitcoin to reclaim or flip resistance levels such as $112,000 or $113,000 could lead to new lows.

Other market participants theorize that potential manipulation by market makers could lead to a giant short squeeze, driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

Bitcoin retested the $111,000 mark into Sunday’s weekly close, with analysts suggesting that a potential dip to $100,000 represents a “worst-case scenario” before a significant rally. This outlook is largely based on Fibonacci retracement analysis and historical price behavior observed since late 2024, identifying $100,000 as a critical bounce zone following recent fluctuations influenced by US macroeconomic data.

Recent Price Action and Technical Analysis

The BTC/USD pair recorded a gain of approximately 1% on the day, reaching local highs of $111,369. This movement saw bulls successfully preserve the $110,000 support level despite a recent dip that followed the release of new US macroeconomic data.

Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe described the price action as “promising,” noting that Bitcoin established a new higher low and held the $110,000 support. He suggested that a break above $112,000 could ignite a further bull run.

Diverging Short-Term Outlooks

However, market participants hold varying views on Bitcoin’s immediate price trajectory. Popular trader Cipher X indicated that a failure to reclaim the $112,000 level could lead to new lows. Similarly, trader Crypto Tony stated that Bitcoin would either flip $113,000 to rally to new highs or reject the level and drop to $100,000.

Trader TurboBullCapital highlighted the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) as key levels to monitor, positioned at $115,035 and $101,760, respectively. TurboBullCapital added that if the $107,000 area is lost, the downside target would likely be the $101,000 level, which coincides with the 200-day SMA, presenting a “logical area to expect a bounce.”

The $100,000 “Worst-Case Scenario”

Analysts are pinpointing the $100,000 mark as a potential “worst-case scenario” for Bitcoin’s short-term decline. This assessment is supported by Fibonacci retracement levels, which suggest a maximum drop of 10% based on historical behavior since late last year.

Popular trader ZYN explained that Bitcoin typically bottoms at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, a pattern observed in Q3 2024 and Q2 2025. This level currently sits around $100,000, implying that a 10% drop could precede a significant 50% rally above $150,000.

An additional theory circulating among market participants suggests potential manipulation by market makers on exchange order books. This scenario posits that short sellers could be positioned for a giant short squeeze, driving the market to new all-time highs, echoing price action seen in late 2024.

As Bitcoin navigates critical support and resistance levels, the $100,000 mark remains a significant psychological and technical benchmark. While short-term outlooks diverge, technical analysis based on historical patterns suggests that any substantial dip could serve as a springboard for future gains.